Carson Kelly’s Historic Cycle in Cubs’ Blowout Win Over Athletics: Luck or Hidden Talent Unleashed?

On March 31, 2025, Chicago Cubs catcher Carson Kelly etched his name into franchise history by hitting for the cycle in an 18-3 rout of the Oakland Athletics at Sutter Health Park. It was the first time a Cubs player accomplished this rare feat since Mark Grace on May 9, 1993—ending a 32-year drought for the National League team. But as fans celebrate this milestone, a question lingers: Was Kelly’s performance a stroke of luck, or did it reveal a hidden talent finally breaking free? Let’s dive into the game, Kelly’s career, and the factors behind this unforgettable night.

A Night to Remember: The Cycle Unfolds

The Cubs’ dominance over the Athletics was evident from the start, with 21 hits and 10 walks fueling their offensive explosion. Kelly, batting ninth, was at the heart of it. He kicked off his historic night with a solo home run in the fourth inning, followed by a two-run single in the fifth, a double (and a walk) in the sixth, and the elusive triple in the eighth. That triple—a 104.8 mph liner that ricocheted off the right-center field wall—sealed the cycle, sending the Cubs dugout into a frenzy.

Kelly’s stat line was jaw-dropping: 4-for-4, five RBIs, two walks, and a permanent spot in Cubs lore. It wasn’t just the first Cubs cycle in over three decades; it was the first of the 2025 MLB season and the first ever recorded in March. But with only two career triples in 558 games prior to this night, was this a fluke, or had Kelly tapped into something extraordinary?

The Luck Factor: Did the Stars Align for Kelly?

Hitting for the cycle—achieving a single, double, triple, and home run in one game—is one of baseball’s rarest feats, requiring a blend of skill, opportunity, and, yes, luck. Kelly himself acknowledged the odds stacked against him. “I’ve been in this position before where I needed a triple for the cycle,” he said post-game. “If anybody’s looked up my numbers, I have two triples, so odds are not in my favor, right?” His sprint speed, ranked in the 12th percentile among MLB players, further underscores the improbability.

The game’s context supports the luck argument. The Athletics’ defense faltered at key moments—center fielder JJ Bleday couldn’t corral Kelly’s triple as it bounced off the wall, giving the catcher just enough time to leg it out. The single “had eyes,” finding a gap, while the double was inches from clearing the fence for a second homer. On another night, Kelly might’ve finished 3-for-4 with three home runs instead of a cycle, as one fan noted on social media. The blowout nature of the game also gave Kelly extra at-bats, a luxury not every player gets.

Talent Unleashed: A Case for Kelly’s Skill

Yet dismissing Kelly’s cycle as pure luck overlooks the talent that got him there. A 10-year MLB veteran, Kelly has built a reputation as a defensive stalwart with a career .224 batting average—not a power hitter by trade. However, his 2025 performance hints at untapped offensive potential. Signed to a two-year, $10 million deal by the Cubs in December 2024, Kelly arrived with a fresh start after stints with the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Rangers. His 18 home runs with Arizona in 2019 tied a franchise record for catchers, showing he’s capable of big swings.

On this night, Kelly’s approach was deliberate. “I’m just going to put a good at-bat together,” he said of his mindset before the triple. That focus paid off with a 4-for-4 performance, a feat requiring plate discipline (evidenced by his two walks) and precise contact. Cubs manager Craig Counsell praised the rarity: “They’re once-in-a-lifetime-type days for players.” Kelly’s new bat—jokingly dubbed “one and done”—delivered, suggesting preparation met opportunity.

Teammates see more than luck at play. Starter Ben Brown, who pitched five innings, said, “He’s an incredible baseball player that’s gonna do some awesome things in Chicago.” Kelly’s cycle wasn’t a solo act; it came amid a team-wide offensive outburst, with seven Cubs recording multi-hit games. His ability to capitalize on that momentum points to skill honed over years, not just a fortunate bounce.

Historical Context: Where Kelly Stands

Kelly’s cycle carries extra weight in Cubs history. Before him, Mark Grace’s 1993 cycle stood as the last, with 342 near-cycles (one hit shy) in between. He’s also the first Cubs catcher to achieve it since Randy Hundley in 1966, joining an elite group of 17 catchers in MLB history. Add his two walks, and Kelly becomes just the third player ever—alongside Joe Gordon (1940) and Mickey Cochrane (1937)—to pair a cycle with multiple free passes in one game.

This wasn’t a fluke in isolation. Kelly’s cycle was the first of 2025, beating out stars like Weston Wilson and J.T. Realmuto, the last catchers to do it in 2024 and 2023, respectively. His feat ended the NL’s longest cycle drought, passing the baton to the Kansas City Royals, whose last cycle came from George Brett in 1990. The historical rarity leans toward talent, as luck alone doesn’t rewrite record books.

The Verdict: Luck, Talent, or Both?

So, was it luck or talent? The truth lies in the middle. Baseball is a game of inches and split-second chances—Kelly needed the wall’s ricochet and Bleday’s misplay to leg out that triple. But it’s his skill that put him in position to seize those moments. A lesser hitter might’ve popped out or grounded into a double play. Kelly’s 4-for-4 night, with five RBIs and two walks, reflects a player peaking at the right time, not just rolling the dice.

Analysts weigh in similarly. ESPN’s research highlights the cycle’s rarity, but Kelly’s teammates and manager emphasize his work ethic and preparation. “A lot of hard work, a lot of great teammates pumping me up,” Kelly said, crediting the collective energy. Luck gave him the triple, but talent drove the rest—home run power, a clutch single, and a well-placed double.

What’s Next for Kelly and the Cubs?

At 30, Kelly’s cycle could signal a breakout with the Cubs. His $10 million contract looks like a bargain if this offensive spark continues. For a team with a 3-4 record entering the series, the 18-3 win—and Kelly’s heroics—offers momentum. The Cubs face the Athletics again on April 1, with Kelly’s performance setting a high bar.

Fans are buzzing. “Carson Kelly, you are a madman,” one wrote online, while another marveled at the “most unexpected cycle in MLB history.” Whether luck or talent, Kelly’s night has reignited hope at Wrigley Field.

Conclusion: A Moment of Magic

Carson Kelly’s cycle was a perfect storm—luck handed him the triple, but talent fueled the fire. It’s a reminder of baseball’s unpredictability, where a catcher with two career triples can steal the spotlight. Was it a one-off, or the start of something bigger? Share your take below and follow the Cubs’ 2025 journey to find out!