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Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls

Securing Josh Giddey‘s long-term future will likely be the Chicago Bulls‘ top priority heading into the summer. The playmaking guard is heading for restricted free agency. Chicago is expected to match any offer sheet Giddey signs.

According to NBA cap expert Yozzi Gozlan, who wrote in his “Third Apron” Substack newsletter, the Bulls could end up getting a favorable deal with the multi-talented guard.

“The harsh conditions of restricted free agency and the lack of offers that may come with it could get the Bulls to offer him something in the low $20 million range annually,” Gozlan wrote. “An annual salary in the $25 million range could be his ceiling and ultimately a fair compromise.”

Inking Giddey to a deal between $20-$25 million annual average value would be a significant win for the Bulls. That would allow them to keep their star player for what could be viewed as a significant discount.

Such significant savings would provide the Bulls with additional flexibility moving forward, thus making it easier to round out the roster and build a team capable of competing in the Eastern Conference.

Bulls Should Let Giddey Test Free Agency

Gozlan’s expectations of Giddey’s contract are likely based on the notion that Chicago will let him test his free agency market. Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times recently shared a similar idea.

“The Bulls can let Giddey go to market where there are limited suitors, see what the market bids on him, and then have the right to match it,” Cowley wrote. “Basically, what they should have done with Patrick Williams and didn’t.”

Unless the Brooklyn Nets suddenly decide to chase Giddey, the Bulls should have very limited competition for their star guard. As such, letting the market dictate his value is smart business. If Gozlan’s projections are right, the Bulls could be getting a steal.

Bulls Could Make Giddey a “Bloated Offer”

Despite the potential upside of letting Giddey test the free agency market, there are also risks. Chicago could find itself getting outbid for their star player. That’s why Bleacher Report’s Zach Buckley believes the franchise could risk overpaying him to keep him around.

“Chicago, of course, also had some control over Giddey’s future with restricted free agency awaiting him, but it might still be noteworthy that the price tag on said free agency likely spiked over the season’s final stretch,” Buckley wrote. “The Bulls could lean on their leverage and let Giddey test the market, knowing they have the power to match whatever offer he finds from the few teams with cap space to spare.”

Buckley continued.

“But knowing this front office—the same one that gave Patrick Williams a five-year, $90 million deal last summer—and its particular affinity for Giddey, Chicago seems less likely to take that route than it is to just give him a bloated deal before he hits the “open” market.”

Whatever the Bulls decide to do, the aim will be to retain Giddey. He has proven capable of being the team’s cornerstone moving forward. The partnership he has developed with Coby White is also encouraging. Therefore, it’s safe to assume the front office will do what’s best for the team’s future. Giddey is undoubtedly central to those decisions.

So, whether it’s $20, $25 or even $30 million, expect to see Giddey sticking around the Windy City. He’s too important to the team’s rebuild for them to let him slip away.