The Bills remain one of the league’s premier contenders in 2025, and Cynthia Frelund’s model gives them the second-highest projected win total in the AFC at 11.4, just behind the Ravens.

Buffalo is built to contend now, with Josh Allen leading a high-powered offense and a defense that continues to evolve around key veterans and rising stars.

The scheduling gods were kind to Buffalo.

Their three toughest projected games, against Baltimore (Week 1), Kansas City (Week 9), and Philadelphia (Week 17), are all at home and spaced out across the season, giving the Bills valuable rest and recovery between heavyweight matchups.

Despite the high ceiling, the simulation model leans slightly toward under 12.5 wins (-155) due to the overall strength of the AFC and the razor-thin margins that define elite teams. Still, Buffalo is listed as a heavy favorite to win the AFC East and remains firmly in the mix for the top seed, the conference crown, and a long-awaited return to the Super Bowl.