The Chicago Bulls’ 2024-25 season ended in disappointment, with a 39-43 record and a play-in tournament loss, marking another year without playoff success. As Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claimed the 2024-25 NBA MVP award, a stark reminder emerged: lottery picks matter. Elias Schuster, writing for Bleacher Nation on May 23, 2025, highlighted how Gilgeous-Alexander’s rise from the No. 11 pick underscores the value of high draft selections, with 43 MVP trophies awarded to Top 3 picks historically. Yet, the Bulls seem reluctant to embrace a strategy that prioritizes high lottery odds, opting instead for mid-tier competitiveness. Why are the Bulls shying away from chasing top picks in a loaded 2025 draft, and what does this mean for their future? Let’s dive into this NBA puzzle and explore whether Chicago’s approach risks leaving them without the superstar they desperately need.

The MVP Connection: Lottery Picks and Elite Talent

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 2024-25 MVP win with the Oklahoma City Thunder, as reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania, is a case study in the importance of lottery picks. Selected No. 11 by the Los Angeles Clippers in 2018 and acquired by the Thunder in the Paul George trade, Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t a guaranteed superstar but showed two-way potential that justified his high selection. Lev Akabas of Spotrac, cited by Schuster, revealed that 43 MVP awards have gone to Top 3 picks, with only eight awarded to players outside the lottery (Top 14) and three beyond the Top 15. This data underscores a clear trend: while drafting isn’t foolproof, the odds of landing an MVP-caliber player increase dramatically with higher picks.

The Bulls’ own history supports this. Their last Eastern Conference Finals appearances in 2011 and 1998 were led by Derrick Rose (No. 1 pick, 2008) and Michael Jordan (No. 3 pick, 1984), respectively. These superstars didn’t just elevate the team; they defined eras. Yet, the Bulls’ current strategy under executive vice president Artūras Karnišovas seems to prioritize avoiding the bottom of the standings over chasing top talent. Schuster notes that the Bulls’ decision to finish 15-6 after trading Zach LaVine lowered their lottery odds to 1.7% for the No. 1 pick, landing them at No. 12 in the 2025 draft—a spot unlikely to yield a franchise-changer like Cooper Flagg, who Dallas selected No. 1.

Chicago’s Reluctance to Tank

The Bulls’ aversion to tanking is evident in their actions and rhetoric. Karnišovas, quoted by Jamal Collier on X, believes a championship can be built with “9 or 10 very good players” rather than 2-3 stars, a philosophy that prioritizes depth over elite talent. This approach led Chicago to prioritize play-in experience for young players like Matas Buzelis over improving draft odds, as noted by KC Johnson on X. While Buzelis, selected No. 11 in 2024, shows promise, his uneven rookie season and comparisons to Tyrus Thomas on Reddit highlight the risks of relying on mid-lottery picks for star potential.

Schuster argues that while tanking isn’t a perfect strategy—many top picks fail to become MVPs—the odds favor high selections. He likens drafting to betting on a player to score the first basket: Luka Dončić is a safer bet than Dorian Finney-Smith. The 2025 draft, projected to be deep with talents like Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecombe, and Khaman Maluach, offers a rare opportunity to land a star. Yet, the Bulls’ contentment with picks like No. 12, where they may target players like Derik Queen or Jase Richardson, suggests a belief that role players can suffice. This contrasts with teams like the Thunder, who gambled on Gilgeous-Alexander and built a 68-win team around him.

The Rebuild Conundrum: Assets and Ambition

The Bulls’ trade of Zach LaVine before the February 6, 2025, deadline, as reported by the Chicago Tribune, regained control of their future draft picks, a move typically associated with teams aiming for high lottery selections. However, their subsequent push for the play-in tournament squandered a 26% chance at a top-four pick, leaving them at No. 12 after losing a coin flip to Dallas, who won the No. 1 pick. This outcome, described as a “brutal” blow by Bleacher Nation, underscores Chicago’s missed opportunity in a draft headlined by Flagg.

Chicago’s draft assets are limited, with a top-10-protected 2025 pick potentially owed to San Antonio if it conveys by 2028, per Pippen Ain’t Easy. This scarcity heightens the importance of their current selections, yet Karnišovas’ strategy seems to resist the aggressive rebuild advocated by fans on Reddit, who suggest targeting a center like Maluach or trading Coby White for additional lottery picks. The front office’s belief in building through depth, as expressed by Karnišovas, clashes with the NBA’s reality: teams like the Thunder, Celtics, and Nuggets rely on MVP-caliber stars like Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, and Nikola Jokić.

The Bigger Picture: A Starless Future?

The Bulls’ current roster, featuring Josh Giddey, Buzelis, and Nikola Vučević, lacks a clear No. 1 option. Vučević, an offensive-minded center, isn’t part of the long-term plan, and Giddey’s extension remains uncertain, as discussed on Reddit. Fans and analysts, including Schuster, argue that without a superstar, Chicago risks remaining “stuck” in the Eastern Conference’s middle, a sentiment echoed by Mully of 670 The Score. The Bulls’ defensive struggles—23rd in efficiency and last in paint points allowed—further highlight the need for a transformative talent, whether a versatile wing like Flagg or a defensive anchor like Maluach.

The 2025 draft offers hope, but picking at No. 12 limits Chicago’s ceiling. ESPN’s mock draft suggests Derik Queen, a skilled big man, as a potential target, but his combine performance raised concerns about athleticism and shooting. Alternatively, guards like Jase Richardson or Jeremiah Fears could add backcourt depth, but neither projects as a guaranteed star. The Bulls’ reluctance to “play for ping pong balls” contrasts with teams like the Spurs, who leveraged lottery picks to build around Victor Wembanyama. Without a shift in strategy, Chicago may continue to draft solid contributors while missing the elite talent needed to contend.

The Chicago Bulls’ refusal to embrace high lottery picks, despite the proven link between top selections and MVP-caliber players like Shai Gilgeous – Alexander, raises questions about their long-term vision. While Artūras Karnišovas believes in building through depth, the NBA’s history—evident in Chicago’s own success with Jordan and Rose—shows that superstars drive championships. With a loaded 2025 draft and regained draft control, the Bulls have a chance to change course, but their No. 12 pick and conservative approach suggest more mediocrity ahead. Will Chicago rethink their strategy to chase a game-changer, or are they doomed to remain starless?