All but two of Kansas City’s games this season have been decided by one score or less—they just keep finding ways to survive. But on Sunday, they’ll face a Bills team that would do almost anything to knock them off.
Anyone familiar with the recent history between these teams knows the struggles that Josh Allen and the Bills have faced against the Chiefs, especially in the playoffs, where Buffalo is 0-3 in their last three postseason meetings. However, during the regular season, the edge shifts to Buffalo, who is 3-0 in their recent regular-season matchups with Kansas City.
For the Bills, they’d likely trade a regular-season loss if it meant finally knocking the Chiefs out in the playoffs. That’s still a ways ahead, though. With immense pride at stake here between two of the AFC’s best teams, don’t expect Buffalo to back down.
Seeing as how this game will be back in Buffalo this weekend, the site of last year’s three-point loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs, Bills Mafia will no doubt be in full effect. But Kansas City has shown that nothing phases them. The Bills’ extra motivation coupled with their intimidating fan base may not make much of a difference to the unshakeable Chiefs.
With that said, let’s get into our bold predictions for the Chiefs versus Bills in Week 11.
Patrick Mahomes scores a rushing touchdown, throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns
In four regular-season games against the Bills, Patrick Mahomes has just a 1-3 record. He’s thrown for 1,106 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. On the ground, Mahomes has accumulated 126 rushing yards but has yet to score a rushing touchdown in this rivalry matchup, though he did score one in a postseason game against Buffalo.
In the 2024 season, Mahomes has recorded one rushing touchdown. As the Chiefs prepare to face the Bills in Week 11, Mahomes will aim to secure his first regular-season rushing touchdown against them, which would also mark his second of the season.
Besides that, look for the Chiefs quarterback to do some of his usual work, throwing for around 260 yards and a couple touchdowns. Mahomes has only once thrown for under two touchdowns but has never thrown under 200 yards against the Bills.
Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins both score against Bills
Mahomes’ two projected touchdowns could very well go to his longtime favorite target, tight end Travis Kelce, and his new weapon, recently acquired wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
In Kelce’s seven games against the Bills, he has tallied 26 catches for 289 yards and five touchdowns, averaging nearly five receptions and 63 yards per game. While he hasn’t found the end zone in his last two regular-season matchups against Buffalo, Kelce remains a key factor in these contests.
Hopkins, meanwhile, has been adjusting smoothly with the defending Super Bowl champs. While with the Titans earlier this season, he was averaging 2.5 catches for 28.8 yards and had only three touchdowns in six games. But since joining Kansas City, Hopkins has nearly matched those totals in just three games, recording 14 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns—including a two-touchdown performance in his second game with the Chiefs. In contrast, Hopkins’ previous game against Buffalo with the Titans saw him limited to just one catch for -2 yards, but he should be far more impactful this time around with Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense.
Chiefs defense causes two Josh Allen turnovers
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One area where Josh Allen has shown marked improvement this season is in limiting turnovers. Through 10 games, Allen has thrown only four interceptions against 17 touchdown passes—a significant achievement given his past issues with ball security. Historically, he’s managed to avoid too many mistakes against the Chiefs during the regular season, throwing just two picks, with one of those in last year’s 27-24 loss.
However, the Chiefs are catching Allen at a time when those interceptions have recently crept back into his game. All four of his interceptions this season have come within the last three games, including two against the Colts in last week’s 30-20 win. Kansas City will likely aim to exploit this trend and add another blemish to his stat line in their Week 11 matchup.
Chiefs lose first game of the season to Bills by a field goal
The Chiefs have stayed undefeated this season, even as they’ve flirted with close calls. In Week 10, despite what may have been their worst performance of the year, they managed to escape with a win thanks to a special teams play. Now, they head into Week 11 against a Bills team that has traditionally given them trouble in the regular season where special teams could also play a factor.
Given the Bills’ regular-season success against Kansas City, combined with this game taking place in Buffalo, the momentum might be in Buffalo’s favor. Chiefs-Bills matchups often come down to the wire, and with Kansas City missing kicker Harrison Butker for the next month, that could be a deciding factor this time around.
