The Packers travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings this week sitting two games behind their rivals in the NFC North standings. Green Bay is the underdog but they have a shot at pulling off a nice upset on the road. The key for head coach Matt LaFleur will be to maximize every roster advantage his team enjoys over the Vikings.
The first step in maximizing those advantages is for LaFleur to correctly identify where his team has the edge. The Packers would do well to focus on these five potential matchups as things they can exploit to earn a big win.
Packers advantage No. 4: Jordan Love is better than Sam Darnold
Evaluating the matchup between starting quarterbacks is always a great place to start in a big game. Sam Darnold has exceeded expectations in Minnesota this year but he’s still the second best signal-caller in this matchup. Jordan Love gives Green Bay a clear edge at the game’s most important position.
It’s imperative for the Packers’ quarterback to outproduce his counterpart if his team is going to pull off the upset. Love will push the ball down the field against the Vikings secondary early and often on Sunday afternoon. Connecting a few of those deep throws could turn the game in his team’s favor.
Darnold will try to operate the Vikings’ offense with maximum efficiency. Things have gone wrong for MInnesota if he’s taking the same quantity of deep shots as Love does. Justin Jefferson gives him a dynamic weapon to go to whenever he needs a big play. Having the best wideout in the NFL does not make Darnold the better quarterback. Love has a valuable edge in this game that his team needs him to leverage in a big way.
Packers advantage No. 3: The Packers new running back is better than their old one
Quite a few Packers fans were upset when their favorite team let Aaron Jones go and ultimately, replaced him with Josh Jacobs. That decision looks like a clear win by Brian Gutekunst and his front office this year.
Jacobs has been exactly the sort of bell cow head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to anchor his backfield. He’s already rushed for 1,216 yards this season and is the third-ranked running back in the league per PFF. The former Raider has been Green Bay’s second most important offensive player behind Love this year.
None of this means Jones has not been a valuable part of the Vikings offense. He’s already gone over 1,000 yards which has been a key aspect of his team’s offensive success. Jones just hasn’t been as good as Jacobs over the course of the season.
It will be hard for the Packers to pull off the upset if they’re unable to run the ball effectively against Minnesota’s stout defensive front. The advantage Green Bay enjoys at the running back position is the best way for them to overcome the Vikings’ stellar run defense.
Packers advantage No. 2: Jayden Reed over Josh Metellus in the slot
Jayden Reed is the most explosive wide receiver that Love has to work with. He’ll be deployed in the slot against Josh Metellus during the majority of his offensive snaps on Sunday. Reed’s ability to produce an explosive play or two for his offense will be a key part of LaFleur’s plan for offensive success.
Metellus has held up as a nickel back for Minnesota’s defense this season but he is much better against the run than the pass. His PFF coverage rank is 115 out of 164 safeties on the year. That number sticks out as a real weakness for Reid to exploit.
Expect the Packers to scheme ways to get Reed matched up in single coverage against Metellus on intermediate and deep routes. The Vikings will do everything they can to give their slot corner safetely help on as many snaps as possible. The chess match pre-snap here should be an intriguing battle for fans of both teams to watch.
Packers advantage No. 1: Any Green Bay wideout who lines up against Stephon Gilmore
There was a time when Stephon Gilmore was one of the best one-on-one cover corners in the NFL. That isn’t true for Gilmore at the age of 34. He’s been an average starter for the Vikings this season but the Packers will like their chances of targeting him on Sunday.
The real question for LaFleur and his offensive staff to answer will be which wide receiver they try to isolate against the veteran corner. Romeo Doubs figures to see most of his snaps again Byron Murphy. That leaves Dontayvion Wicks as a guy who could find himself with the most opportunities to go after Gilmore in single coverage.
Gilmore still has the physicality to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage and the length to tip balls away on routes near the line of scrimmage. Green Bay needs to give Love and his receivers time to work down the field against the veteran defensive back. That will give them an opportunity to hit explosive plays over the top of the Vikings secondary. It may be a bit of a feast or famine strategy but it’s the sort of risk required to pull of an upset of this magnitude. Burning Gilmore is something the Packers need to do if they are going to emerge victorious.
