The 2024 Minnesota Vikings are sitting in a situation not too dissimilar to that of the 2017 team with a pivotal decision at quarterback.

However, even though the situations are similar in that they have questions about what they will do moving forward, it’s a little more concrete this go around.

The Vikings selected J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft whereas the 2017 team had Case Keenum, Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater all hit the free-agent market at the same time. Sure, the 2024 Vikings have Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens and Daniel Jones all set to hit the market, but it’s far from the same situation.

The only one that matters here is Darnold and the question remains whether or not the Vikings should re-sign him after his breakout season. 

Sam Darnold’s performance is extension worthy

The idea of a Darnold extension was one that nobody had on their bingo card going into the season. Heck, some in the national media didn’t think Darnold would start a game, as they believed McCarthy would start from day one. 

Needless to say, Darnold has made the discussion about his future more intricate, as he’s played at an MVP level at times this season.

His play is what has sparked the discussions. Darnold has harnessed his aggressiveness to generate explosive plays down the field. That mindset meshes perfectly with how head coach Kevin O’Connell likes to play football.

This season, Darnold is second in the NFL in big-time throws with 29 on the season and his numbers on 20+ yard throws are superb.

• 54 attempts (T-3rd)
• 27 completions (T-1st)
• 969 yards (1st)
• 7 touchdown (T-2nd)
• 19 big-time throws (T-3rd)

All of these numbers are career highs for Darnold, as are:

• Wins: 12
• Completion percentage: 67.6%
• Yards: 3,530
• Touchdowns: 29
• Passer rating: 104.9
• EPA/play: 0.154
• Success rate: 51.6%

The real question about how well Darnold has played this season boils down to one major question: how much of the success is credited to O’Connell? For the sake of the argument, let’s say that Darnold is the biggest aspect of his success and why the Vikings want to give him an extension.

Salary Cap implications of a Sam Darnold extension

This is where the biggest aspect of the discussion lies. Right now, Darnold is on a one-year, $10 million contract with a 2024 cap hit of $8.75 million. Getting this type of quarterback play for that price is quite the bargain.

When you look at what a new contract might look like, it will be significantly more expensive.

The last two “bridge type” quarterbacks to have a renaissance that got big contracts had vastly different salaries.

Looking at both of these situations is really interesting, especially when you think about which one Darnold is more closely related to. When it comes to how the Vikings will have to play it, they will likely have to look at it like the Mayfield contract, but for more money.

There are two things going for Darnold: 

• He’s only 27 years old
• He was a third-overall pick with the talent to match

That is more like Mayfield than it is Smith, especially when you factor in how the latter had to wait for his second chance.

Along with a potential extension, there is the option of a franchise tag. Per Over The Cap, their current projections for the franchise tag for a quarterback is $41,304,000, which is $3 million more than what it was in 2024.

That is a significant amount of money to give Darnold, especially with McCarthy on the roster waiting in the wings. It’s eerily similar to what the San Diego Chargers had after the 2004 season.

“I want to relate it to a scenario that happened with the Chargers 2001 NFL draft. They had the first overall pick and hey weren’t 100% sold on Michael Vick. Now, in today’s day and age, I think everybody would have been sold on Michael Vick the player, but 2001 it was a very, very different league so they traded back to fifth overall and they got a decent package and then they took LaDanian Tomlinson and with the first pick in the second round, they took Drew Brees. And Brees we know and he’s going to end up being in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but at that point, Brees his first couple years he was okay and very up and down. And in the 2004 NFL Draft, they had the first overall pick again they took Eli Manning, traded for Philip Rivers, got extra draft capital from the Giants and the rest is history. So 2004 Drew Brees is in a contract year, balls out and I believe he made the Pro Bowl so now the Chargers are looking at themselves okay. We’ve got essentially the first overall pick here because that’s the pick they had Rivers was taken for do we go with Rivers or do we keep Drew Brees after he just absolutely balled out and he looks to be like a legitimate quarterback. What do we do? And I think that scenario is something that you can kind of look at for a comparison point if darnold just all of the sudden takes off because he just turned 27 years old.”

The Chargers had a situation where they had two future Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterbacks on the roster and they really couldn’t make a bad decision. The Vikings could be in that same position, but the odds of that are very unlikely. 

Ultimately, the decision is likely to come down to salary cap dollars. Will giving Darnold major money be worth it in terms of opportunity cost? The more money you pay your quarterback, the less money you have to pay other players.

Right now, the Vikings are projected to be $76+ million under the salary cap going into the offseason, but only 33 players are under contract. They have a lot of work to do, but there will be multiple players brought back, including players who are exclusive rights free agents like Jalen Redmond.

It’s inarguable that you won’t be able to pay as many players with Darnold on a bigger contract, but would they have a worse team next year than they do this season? That is where the Vikings could argue that it would be on par and possibly better.

Why is that? Take a look at the dead cap situation.

The Vikings have $71,565,541 in dead cap this season with $28.5 million wrapped up in Kirk Cousins’ dead money from his contract.

When you look at it that way, the Vikings have $37.25 million in salary cap space tied up in the quarterback position. Going into next season with around that tied up in Darnold would be no different than it is this year.

As things currently sit, the Vikings have $3,387,821 in dead cap next season with more money potentially being added to that if players like Harrison Smith and Byron Murphy Jr. choose not to re-sign with the team before the start of the new league year.

Hypothetically, the Vikings would have a projected $35,163,385 in salary cap space if they were to franchise tag Darnold, which would be similar to the amount they entered the 2024 offseason with. They could easily field just as good of a team with Darnold next year based on how the salary cap situation would look next season.

The opportunity cost of extending Sam Darnold

This is where the discussion really comes into focus. Giving Darnold $41,304,000 instead of someone like Jones or Mullens $6 million is a $35 million disparity. The Vikings could use that $35 million to get two massive difference makers on the open market. There are multiple players the Vikings could target in free agency who could be impact players on day one.

• DT Osa Odighizuwa: $15 million AAV
• CB D.J. Reed: $15 million AAV
• OG Trey Smith: $23 million AAV

If you have Darnold, you likely can’t sign all of those, Heck, you might put yourself in a position where if you could have all three, you only get one. That opportunity cost is a major factor in the Darnold extension discussion.

The other aspect of this is the Vikings are in a Super Bowl window now and building around the quarterback with the window is an important factor. Keeping that window open for a longer period of time is very important for the Vikings. The other argument to that is getting one Super Bowl trophy is the immediate goal and if you believe Darnold is the right guy for the job, you find a way to make it work. There is no wrong decision that ends in a Super Bowl trophy, just ask the Los Angeles Rams about the Matthew Stafford trade.

There are two other elements at play with a Darnold extension (not the franchise tag) that could be impactful to the future of the Vikings:

• Darnold’s first year would be significantly discounted like most contracts
• They could trade McCarthy for a haul

That’s a lot to take in. Trading the 10th overall pick from the previous year’s draft without having taken a snap would be unprecedented, but a move they could make if they choose Darnold as their franchise quarterback. With the poor free agent class outside of Darnold and the draft class also being poor at the position could lead to a very fruitful market. That draft capital would also be impactful in helping fortify the roster.

An extension would also allow the Vikings to maximize the 2025 season, especially with how general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has structured his contracts. 

Let’s say it’s a 3-year, $110 million contract, which is slightly more than what Mayfield got. If you give him

• $25 million signing bonus
• $15 million salary in 2025
• $30 million salary in 2026
• $40 million salary in 2027
• Void years in 2028 and 2029

This would give him a cap hit of just $20 million in 2025, which would still give you $56 million in cap space, plus extra draft capital to continue building up the roster.

If the Vikings end up letting Darnold go, they could franchise tag him with the idea of trading him. That would be against a lot of how the Vikings have handled things with their roster leading up to now, but getting just a 2026 third-round compensatory pick, which isn’t a guarantee, would be a tough pill to swallow. However, it might not be worth the risk of upsetting the elite culture that the Vikings have built. 

What will the Vikings end up doing? Well, it’s almost a guarantee that McCarthy will be the guy next year because of that opportunity cost. Even so, I’ll leave you with this:

McCarthy is far from a guarantee to be a franchise quarterback and if you think that Darnold is one, it’s difficult to let him go. With all that said, the Vikings believe McCarthy more than just about anyone else in the NFL or media.

With general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s background on Wall Street, moving on from Darnold is the likely move, but never say never.