After their Week 16 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back on the outside looking in in regards to the NFC playoff race.

That can change for good on Sunday night, though.

Tampa’s playoff hopes may depend on the outcome of the Atlanta Falcons’ matchup on the road against the Washington Commanders, a game that Washington is favored to win by four points. With the teams currently tied at 8-7, the Falcons own the head-to-head edge by virtue of sweeping the Buccaneers earlier in the season.

Simply put, the Bucs need the Falcons to take one more loss while they themselves win out. That shouldn’t be too hard for them with Tampa’s final two games coming against the 4-11 Carolina Panthers and 5-10 New Orleans Saints, both at home. Atlanta also plays the Panthers at home in Week 18, though, so if the Falcons are going to stumble, it’s likely going to have to be this weekend.

Despite being swept by their division rivals, it can be easily argued that the Buccaneers have been the better overall team this season. Their +75 point differential is significantly better than Atlanta’s -22, and with that likely factored in, CBSSports.com’s playoff prediction algorithm gives the Bucs a 52.8 percent chance to win the division compared to Atlanta at 47.2.

It is worth noting that the Falcons are not the same team that they’ve been for most of the year, due to the insertion of rookie QB Michael Penix, Jr. replacing Kirk Cousins starting last week. Penix was impressive in his debut, leading the Falcons to a 34-7 win while throwing for 202 yards. He did throw a pick, but it was an accurate pass that bounced right off the hands of tight end Kyle Pitts.

Still, going into Washington and beating a 10-5 Commanders team in only his second start will be a tall task for Penix and the Falcons. Tampa will need to hope he’s not quite up to it, all while the Bucs win the two games they should have no problems winning.