The San Francisco 49ers face slim odds of landing a top-nine pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Carolina Panthers and New York Jets, sitting at 4-11 heading into Week 17, hold the eighth and ninth spots, respectively. Overtaking either team seems unlikely for the 6-9 49ers. The Panthers’ and the Jets’ relatively low strength of schedules (.497 and .500 compared to the 49ers’ .568) make the leap even tougher.
However, the 10th pick, currently projected to go to the 5-10 New Orleans Saints, remains within reach. The Saints have dropped three of their last four games and are set to host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, where the Raiders are slight one-point favorites. New Orleans closes out the season on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Meanwhile, the 49ers will host the Detroit Lions on Monday night as 3.5-point underdogs before finishing the season on the road against the Arizona Cardinals.
Should San Francisco lose its final two games and the Saints win one of their last two, tiebreakers—starting with strength of schedule—will determine draft order. The Saints’ opponents currently boast a combined winning percentage of .508, giving New Orleans the edge in a potential tie.
Of course, improving their draft position would require the 49ers to lose more games, which the team hopes to avoid. Instead, they aim to finish the season on a high note, building momentum into the offseason.
The Week 17 matchup against the Lions is especially significant because it is a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, in which the 49ers ended Detroit’s hopes of winning the Super Bowl.
“They’re going to come in this week, and I think we’re all very aware that they think that they gave us one last year,” tight end George Kittle said Friday. “And I think they’re going to do everything they can to come in here and beat us by 30 points. And it’s our job to not let them do that.
“And, actually, I fully expect us to win. I go into every single game expecting to win a football game. If you go in expecting to lose, I think you’re going to lose no matter what.”
Winning their final two games would drop the 49ers further down the draft’s first round. While a top-10 pick is still within reach, the team is prioritizing finishing the season with pride over draft positioning.
