The Green Bay Packers are going to go into the postseason without the services of cornerback Jaire Alexander, who had surgery on his injured knee and will miss at least the first three rounds of the playoffs. This isn’t uncharted territory for the Packers, who have been without Alexander for all but 10 snaps since he suffered the injury in Week 8 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
So, what are we to make of the Packers pass defense without Alexander?
It’s tough to know exactly, in part due to injuries at safety (Evan Williams and Javon Bullard both missed multiple games) and linebacker (Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper both missed multiple games) since the bye week.
But the numbers — both traditional and more analytical — point to a rather simple conclusion: Without Alexander, the Packers have been great against a handful of bad quarterbacks and below average to bad against the good quarterbacks and passing games.
In aggregate, the numbers look pretty good. Really good, actually. But the numbers are also influenced greatly by the dominant snaps the Packers played against backups Brandon Allen, Spencer Rattler and Sam Howell.
The passing defense struggled in matchups against Jared Goff (twice), Tua Tagovailoa and Sam Darnold, who all completed over 70 percent of passes and had a success rate over 50 percent in the passing game against the Packers.
When looking at the chart below, SR% is success rate on dropbacks, and EPA is total expected points gained during all dropbacks.
| Comp % | Yrds/att | EPA | SR% | Result | |
| Week 9 vs. DET | 81.8 | 6.6 | .315 | 58.3 | L, 24-14 |
| Week 11 at CHI | 74.2 | 7.5 | .181 | 51.2 | W, 20-19 |
| Week 12 vs. SF | 58.6 | 6.9 | -.524 | 34.4 | W, 38-10 |
| Week 13 vs. MIA | 80.4 | 7.9 | .222 | 57.4 | W, 30-17 |
| Week 14 at DET | 78.0 | 6.9 | .229 | 57.8 | L, 34-31 |
| Week 15 at SEA | 60.6 | 5.2 | -.453 | 34.1 | W, 30-13 |
| Week 16 vs. NO | 50.0 | 5.1 | -.374 | 35.9 | W, 34-0 |
| Week 17 at MIN | 76.7 | 8.8 | .263 | 60.9 | L, 27-25 |
More than likely, a backup quarterback isn’t walking through the door come playoff time. The NFC playoffs will feature Goff, Darnold, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield (likely) and sensational rookie Jayden Daniels at the quarterback position.
The Lions (third), Commanders (fourth), Buccaneers (seventh), Vikings (eighth) and Eagles (ninth) all rank in the top 10 for dropback EPA this season. The Lions (first), Buccaneers (fourth), Vikings (fifth), Rams (eighth) and Commanders (10th) all rank in the top 10 for dropback success rate. The conference is loaded with dangerous passing games.
There are no easy outs in the postseason. Getting to the Super Bowl requires beating the best quarterbacks and passing games in consecutive weeks, and there’s no room for a bad game in a knockout style tournament.
Without Alexander, the Packers will likely roll with some combination of Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes at perimeter cornerback and Nixon and Javon Bullard in the slot. The Packers are hopeful Williams can return from a quad injury to start the postseason. He’d start next to Pro Bowler Xavier McKinney at safety.
The pass rush quality is at least equally concerning as the situation in the secondary. It’s too inconsistent. And an inability to consistently generate a pass rush against top quarterbacks is a sure-fire way to get lit up during the postseason.
Two questions to answer come playoff time: Can the Packers pass defense survive against a top quarterback on the road, and if they can, is the pass defense good enough without Alexander to win three or four playoff games?
