The NFL announced the AFC and NFC Pro Bowl rosters on Thursday afternoon, and amidst all the usual arguing about who got snubbed and who didn’t belong, the most notable absence was the biggest name in the entire sport: For the first time since taking over as starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs back in 2018, Patrick Mahomes wasn’t named a Pro Bowler, snapping a six-year streak.
Not seeing Mahomes’ name among the best at his position is jarring; the two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion has been almost universally regarded as the best QB in the league from pretty much the moment he stepped foot on an NFL field. But just because it’s jarring doesn’t mean it’s wrong. The simple fact is that Mahomes’ performance this season hasn’t kept pace with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, the three quarterbacks chosen over him on the AFC roster. But that’s not an indictment of Mahomes as a player — it’s an indictment of his team, and how difficult they’ve made life for their biggest star of late.
Mahomes has been far from bad this season. He ranks second in the AFC in completions and third in passing yards entering the final week of the regular season, and his team is 15-1 and headed for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. But he’s also thrown just 26 touchdowns at a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt, and his 68.5 QBR ranks sixth in the league, well behind the three quarterbacks selected ahead of him. The numbers don’t lie: Mahomes simply hasn’t been as effective this season as we’re used to seeing.
Of course, it’s not like he just forgot how to play football at an elite level in the 11 months since he led the Chiefs to a second straight title. He’s 29 years old, smack dab in his prime, and his arm talent, athleticism and intelligence haven’t gone anywhere. It’s just that he hasn’t gotten as many chances to make use of them this season, a failure that’s equal parts mismanagement and sheer bad luck. Start with the latter: Injuries to Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco have forced Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to operate at a significant disadvantage for much of the year, and have played a big role in Kansas City’s complete inability to push the ball downfield.
That being said, it’s not like Brett Veach and Co. are completely blameless here either. Even at full health, Kansas City wasn’t set to surround Mahomes with a terrifying group of weapons; Brown has been maddeningly inconsistent as a pro, and it looks like it’ll take at least a year or two for Xavier Worthy to make good on his first-round selection. And that doesn’t even address the biggest failure: the Chiefs’ offensive line, in particular the tackle situation. Second-round rookie Kingsley Suamataia was a disaster to start the year, and Wanya Morris wasn’t much better. The team tried to sign D.J. Humphries off the street, only for Humphries to go down with an injury.
The result has been consistent pressure on Mahomes, despite great work on the interior from Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney. Even if the Chiefs had the receiving talent to unlock Mahomes’ ridiculous arm, his line wouldn’t be able to block long enough to let them get open. Mahomes is all too aware of this: His time to throw is just 2.8 seconds, and his intended air yards rank him near the bottom of the league. Mahomes has played the whole season with one hand tied behind his back, transforming his game to try and manage Kansas City to a series of close victories. The fact that he’s done so successfully is a sign of his greatness, but if the Chiefs want to get him back to the Pro Bowl next season, some serious work needs to be done.
