At long last, the Denver Broncos are headed back to the promised land.The Broncos finished 10-7 on the 2024 season, good enough for a playoff berth and a trip to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Jan. 12.

The odds markets definitely favor the Bills in this matchup, as spreads for the game vary between +7.5 and +9.5 for Denver. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has an excellent shot at being named league MVP, and his dual-threat capabilities helped lead Buffalo to 13-4 and the AFC’s second seed.

Denver’s defense, however, will have something to say about that points spread. The Broncos finished 2024 with the third-highest defensive success rate in the entire NFL, and have made their bones by being a blitz-heavy team that plays a high percentage of man coverage on the back end, trusting players like Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss, and Ja’Quan McMillian to man up on their assigned receivers.

That could be an advantage against Buffalo. The Bills struggled heavily against the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens when faced with man coverage; in fact, Allen was just 5 of 17 for 62 yards in those two games against man. The struggles may stem from the fact that Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, and other Bills receivers aren’t the greatest natural separators in the league, either with physicality or blinding speed.

In fairness, it must be pointed out that Buffalo torched the Detroit Lions’ secondary when faced with man coverage in Week 15. But the Broncos boast a healthier defensive backfield than the Lions were able to field in that game, and arguably have more talented players to contend with as well.

The Broncos enter this Wild Card matchup against the Bills as underdogs for a reason, but the team itself has every confidence that it can go into Buffalo and upend Allen and company the same way it did during the 2023 regular season. If that happens, the team’s ability to play man coverage successfully will be a huge reason why.