The Kansas City Chiefs have set an incredible standard of dominance since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018. Under his leadership, the team has made it to at least the AFC Championship game every season, a testament to their consistency and excellence. This year, with a stellar 15-2 record, they once again secured the number one seed in the AFC, ensuring that the road to the Super Bowl goes through Arrowhead Stadium.

But beneath the impressive record lies a story of uncertainty and vulnerability. Despite their dominance on paper, this year’s Chiefs feel different, and not in a good way. They have shown uncharacteristic signs of unsteadiness, leading some to believe that their Super Bowl hopes are in jeopardy.

What’s Different This Year?

At first glance, the Chiefs’ 15-2 record suggests business as usual. However, a deeper dive reveals that this season has been defined by narrow escapes rather than the commanding victories fans have come to expect.

The Chiefs have won 11 one-score games this season, extending their streak of close victories to 16 dating back to last year. While winning close games often showcases skill and composure, there’s no denying that luck has played a significant role. Consider the following examples from this season:

• Week 1 vs. Baltimore: The Ravens appeared to score a game-winning touchdown, but Isaiah Likely was ruled out of bounds by mere inches.
• Week 2 vs. Cincinnati: A fourth-and-16 pass interference call bailed the Chiefs out, allowing them to win on a last-second field goal.
• Week 10 vs. Denver: The Chiefs blocked a 35-yard field goal as time expired to preserve a two-point win.
• Week 14 vs. Las Vegas: The Chiefs clinched their ninth straight division title with a backup kicker’s field goal that bounced off the upright and in.

While the Chiefs have proven adept at winning close games, such reliance on last-minute fortune is not a sustainable formula in the playoffs, where the margin for error is even slimmer.

Mahomes’ Struggles

Patrick Mahomes has been the cornerstone of the Chiefs’ success, but this season he hasn’t been his usual dominant self. For the first time in his career, he failed to make the Pro Bowl, threw for the fewest touchdowns since his second year as a starter, and didn’t surpass 4,000 passing yards. Watching him play, it’s evident that he lacks the sharpness that defined his earlier seasons.

Mahomes’ decline is compounded by the aging of Travis Kelce, who is no longer the unstoppable force he once was. The rest of the Chiefs’ supporting cast also lacks the explosiveness of past years, leaving the offense looking pedestrian at times.

This has forced the Chiefs to rely more heavily on their defense, which has been excellent. However, in a potential playoff shootout against high-powered offenses like the Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens, the Chiefs may struggle to keep pace. Their offense, which ranks 15th in points per game, no longer feels like a guarantee in must-win situations.

Why the Chiefs Won’t Make the Super Bowl

The Kansas City Chiefs are undeniably a great team, but they lack the invincibility of years past. Their reliance on close wins, Mahomes’ uncharacteristic struggles, and a less potent offense make them more vulnerable than ever.

In the high-stakes environment of the playoffs, where luck often runs out and weaknesses are exploited, this Chiefs team could falter. While their defense is strong, it may not be enough to overcome the offensive firepower of their AFC rivals.

For a franchise that has set the bar so high, anything less than a Super Bowl appearance will feel like a disappointment. And this year, it seems like disappointment might be on the horizon.