The Washington Commanders are hours away from taking on the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field for a chance to compete in the Super Bowl. The two teams split the season series, and Washington pulled off the upset in Week 16 when Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the contest with a concussion.
With kickoff fast approaching, we’re looking at five reasons Philadelphia will win.
Eagles will get pressure on Jayden Daniels
Philadelphia’s defense made life difficult for Jayden Daniels in their Week 11 matchup, pressuring him on 11 dropbacks. Daniels completed 4-of-6 passes for 59 yards but threw an interception and took three sacks. He managed just one rushing scramble under pressure in that game. In the Week 16 Washington win, the Eagles pressured Daniels on 19 of his 46 dropbacks, but they recorded only one sack while allowing him to scramble five times for 48 yards. Under pressure, Daniels completed 6-of-13 passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns. Notably, the 117 passing yards under pressure were the most allowed by the Eagles in a single game all season. Vic Fangio’s defensive unit will generate pressure against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense, as they produced pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the league (36.5%).
Eagles will run Washington out of the building
No team ran the ball on first down more often than the Eagles during the regular season, doing so 64% of the time. During the postseason, Philadelphia has run on 71% of first downs. The Commanders’ defense will need to commit to stopping the run early and probably will stick with their aggressive strategy of sending early-down run blitzes. Saquon Barkley has faced 10 run blitzes in the playoffs, gaining just 21 yards and picking up only one first down in those situations. That’ll change on Sunday with Daron Payne ruled out.
Jalen Hurts will flourish with play action
How well Jalen Hurts does on play action against a subpar Washington defense will be something to watch. When Hurts and the Eagles beat the Commanders in Week 11, play action was the team’s best method for going over the top on Washington. When using play action on 41.2% of dropbacks, Hurts went 9-of-12 for 113 yards, zero turnover-worthy plays, and a 100% adjusted completion percentage. His 84.1 PFF passing grade on play action was substantially higher than on non-play action dropbacks (49.2). The Eagles will run to set up the pass.
Commanders are vulnerable in multiple areas
Washington ranks 29th in the NFL in PFF run-defense grade and 30th in yards per carry allowed. The Eagles allow the lowest percentage of explosive pass plays in the league and the Commanders rank 27th in creating them as an offense.
Jalen Carter
Sam Cosmi’s season-ending injury creates a significant challenge for Washington: The right guard is out for the year ahead of a game where the Commanders must stifle an elite Eagles interior pass-rusher. Jalen Carter generated seven pressures in the win over the Rams and should feast with Cosmi ruled out.
