Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold had the NFL by the tail heading into Week 18 of the regular season, and despite a couple poor showings that ended the campaign on a sour note, he hasn’t entirely lost his grip.
The relative weakness of the draft and free agency classes have empowered Darnold as he approaches unrestricted free agency in March at the age of just 27 years old. Projections for Darnold’s next deal range between $100-$160 million in total value across a three- or four-year contract.
Benjamin Solak of ESPN took a deep dive into Darnold’s market on Tuesday, Jan. 28, and pinned it into an annual range of $30-$40 million over the next handful of seasons — but with a caveat.
“While the idea of signing Darnold to a four-year, $140 million deal seems preposterous, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those figures at all,” Solak wrote. “Functionally that ends up playing out more like a two-year, $70 million contract with a couple of team options attached behind it if Darnold plays well.”
Sam Darnold Will Likely Garner Interest From Several NFL Teams
Darnold’s potential price point encompasses a relatively wide range as of late January, which clouds to a degree how aggressive Minnesota might be in trying to bring him back next season.
The Vikings have rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the No. 10 overall pick in 2024, and a proven system under head coach Kevin O’Connell that can help attract quality veterans as McCarthy’s competition and/or backup if Darnold does depart.
Beyond the limited number of quality QBs available this offseason, the number of franchises that are on the hunt for a signal-caller should also put Darnold in a favorable position from a free agency perspective. Solak mentioned the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants as likely suitors for Darnold.
If the Tennessee Titans, who select No. 1 overall, or the Cleveland Browns, who pick No. 2, don’t take quarterbacks in those spots or trade back, each franchise could also potentially be a player for Darnold. Tennessee would be more likely, as the Browns still have two years left to pay on the fully-guaranteed $230 million contract to which it inked Deshaun Watson in 2022.
Vikings Can Take Leverage From Sam Darnold by Franchise Tagging, Trading Him
Considering the supply and demand context that has put Darnold in the driver’s seat heading into the offseason, the Vikings might also consider grabbing the wheel by utilizing the franchise tag to lock him into a one-year deal in 2025.
That tag will run Minnesota around $40 million, though the point wouldn’t necessarily be to keep Darnold, but instead to trade him and gain some value back rather than simply letting him walk in free agency for nothing.
Projections of Darnold’s trade value range between a late second-round pick or a third-rounder in 2025 to something like a fourth-rounder and sixth-rounder, perhaps split across the next two drafts. Minnesota currently owns just its first-round pick and two fifth-round selections this April.
