The Coach of the Year Curse: Did Dan Campbell Dodge a Bullet?
Do you believe in curses? Personally, I’m skeptical—until the evidence starts piling up. And in the case of the NFL’s Coach of the Year award, the trend is hard to ignore.
On Thursday night, the NFL hosted its annual awards ceremony, and for the third straight year, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell was nominated for Coach of the Year. And for the third straight year, he left empty-handed. This time, Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell took home the honor.
Lions fans may be frustrated, but perhaps they should see this as a blessing in disguise.
A Curse or Just a Coincidence?
The idea of a “Coach of the Year curse” isn’t new, but recent history makes it feel more real than ever. Just look at the fate of past winners.
Last year, Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski won the award. Fast forward to this season, and the Browns collapsed to a 3-14 record. Now, they’re teetering on the edge of a full rebuild, with rumors swirling about star defensive end Myles Garrett being traded and questions surrounding their quarterback situation.
In 2022, New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll earned the award after leading the team to the playoffs. The following season, the Giants fell to 6-11 and missed the postseason. This past year? They finished a disastrous 3-14.
Are these just isolated struggles, or is there something deeper at play?
The Numbers Don’t Lie
A quick glance at the past decade of Coach of the Year winners paints a concerning picture.
| Coach | Record When Winning | Record the Following Year | Still with Team? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 12-5 | 7-10 | Fired |
| Kevin Stefanski | 11-5 | 8-9 | Still with team |
| John Harbaugh | 14-2 | 11-5 | Still with team |
| Matt Nagy | 12-4 | 8-8 | Fired |
| Sean McVay | 11-5 | 13-3 | Still with team |
| Jason Garrett | 13-3 | 9-7 | Fired |
| Ron Rivera (2015) | 15-1 | 6-10 | Fired |
| Bruce Arians | 11-5 | 13-3 | Fired |
| Ron Rivera (2013) | 12-4 | 7-8-1 | Fired |
Of the last ten winners, only two—John Harbaugh and Sean McVay—managed to maintain success. The rest saw their teams regress significantly, and many were eventually fired.
Some, like Ron Rivera, even experienced the “curse” twice.
Curse or Crushing Expectations?
So, what’s really behind this trend? Is there an actual curse, or is it simply the immense pressure that follows winning the award?
Once a coach is named the best in the league, expectations skyrocket. Suddenly, every decision is scrutinized, and anything less than continued success is seen as failure. Some coaches, like Harbaugh and McVay, have proven they can handle the spotlight. Others, as history shows, have not.
What This Means for Dan Campbell and the Lions
With Dan Campbell missing out on the award yet again, does that take some pressure off the Lions next season? Maybe slightly—but make no mistake, Detroit will still be under the microscope.
After an impressive 2023 campaign, expectations remain sky-high. The challenge now is proving that last season wasn’t a fluke. Campbell and his team won’t have the so-called “Coach of the Year curse” hanging over them, but they’ll still have to prove they belong among the NFL’s elite.
Will the Lions keep winning? Only time will tell, but if recent history is any indication, Campbell might be better off without that trophy on his shelf.
