Analysts are already predicting the Minnesota Vikings’ regression ahead of the NFL Scouting Combine, free agency, and the NFL Draft.

ESPN gathered their national NFL analysts to give way-too-early predictions for the 2025 season and they aren’t viewing the Vikings very highly. Three of their national analysts picked the Vikings as their team to take a step back.

Vikings predicted to regress in 2025

The idea of regression is relatively simple: your performance the year prior is much harder to duplicate so you will be closer to average than you were previously.

The three analysts who have the Vikings as the number one regression are: Jeremy Fowler, Jordan Reid, and Mike Tannenbaum.

Fowler: Vikings. A slight step back. They will remain playoff-caliber, but it’s tough to replicate a 14-win season when several key free agents are poised to leave and the offense could be breaking in a new quarterback.

Reid: Vikings. So many things went right for them in 2024. It’s difficult to imagine they will have as many things break their way, especially with a potential change at quarterback.

Tannenbaum: Vikings. Sam Darnold played extremely well in 2024. But whether it’s him or J.J. McCarthy as the starter in 2025, it will be hard to replicate that kind of quarterback success.

The way things are phrased by the three analysts is completely fair. The Vikings massively overperformed in 2024 with Sam Darnold and they have the most snaps set to hit free agency in the NFL at nearly 45% of their 2024 snaps. It’s also worth noting that the 2024 season was supposed to be a reloading year.

The other factor is that Reid and Fowler are very connected. Fowler has been on the beat before, and Reid has been a lifelong Vikings fan, so more attention is paid to them than to other teams.

Will the Vikings take a major step backward? They certainly could. However, I wouldn’t bet against Kevin O’Connell.