Tuesday marks one of the first notable dates of the Vikings offseason. The franchise tag window is now open, kicking off what figures to be the deciding month of quarterback Sam Darnold’s future.

Minnesota’s choice will have cascading effects on its roster vision for 2025. The more NFL teams pay for quarterbacks, the less they can spend on the rest of their roster. Success in the NFL Draft can overcome sizable cap numbers at QB. The Vikings’ selections in recent years leave the team needing its available salary cap space to paper over issues.

Evaluating Darnold’s future requires viewing things through that lens. However, Minnesota’s calculus must take more into account.

A few weeks ago, we evaluated Darnold’s potential landing spots. Today, here are all of the Vikings’ options — listed from least likely to most likely:

Multi-year extension

Let’s go back to August. Before the Vikings won 14 games. Before all of the highs and lows of Darnold’s 2024 season. In Cleveland, head coach Kevin O’Connell confirmed the worst. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy had torn his meniscus and would miss the 2024 season. O’Connell relayed the news, adding: “Our fan base and everyone should be excited we’ve got our young franchise quarterback in the building.”

That internal sentiment — McCarthy being the Vikings’ future — remains. The current Vikings’ brass has long been hopeful that it could pair a promising young quarterback on a rookie contract with ample spending on the rest of the roster. Health permitting, McCarthy pushes that plan into action. Hence, why extending Darnold for multiple seasons is listed first (and least likely) of the options.

This conversation might have looked different had Darnold led the Vikings to a deep playoff run. He averaged four poor throws a game, according to a Pro Football Reference statistic tracking throws that weren’t catchable with normal effort. He threw 23 poor throws in his final two games, and the Vikings lost both.

This contrasts with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, a frequent comparison point for Darnold. Both were drafted highly in 2018 and both floundered early in their careers. Mayfield thrived in 2023 and threw for 337 yards and three touchdown passes in a 2023 playoff game before signing a three-year, $100 million contract worth $50 million guaranteed.

Working in Darnold’s favor is a lackluster free-agent QB market and NFL Draft class. The Raiders, Giants and Steelers need quarterbacks. The Rams could eventually be in the market. If the Vikings had drafted better over the last few seasons, filling holes on the interior of the offensive line and in the secondary, it’d be easier to explain allocating a hefty chunk of salary cap space and cash for Darnold.

Franchise tag

The Vikings should have around $60 million in cap space for 2025. They need interior offensive linemen, interior defensive linemen, cornerbacks, running backs and potentially safeties. Supplementing the roster with impact players with Darnold occupying the franchise tag (around $41 million) is nearly impossible.

Where the idea of franchise-tagging Darnold gets interesting is if it involves a trade. Would another team try to prevent Darnold from hitting free agency (and being pursued by multiple teams) by trading draft capital for him?

It wouldn’t be the first time for a quarterback. In 2009, the Patriots weren’t sure about Tom Brady’s status returning from a torn ACL. Matt Cassel had played well the previous year with O’Connell as his backup, so the Patriots franchise-tagged him as a safe play. Eventually, upon realizing Brady would be healthy for ’09, New England traded Cassel to the Kansas City Chiefs for a second-round pick.

Franchise-tagging Darnold is sensible in two worlds. McCarthy’s rehab would have to take a turn (all signs have been positive), or another team would have to commit to parting with draft picks for him. Otherwise, this option would not be the most beneficial for what the Vikings have long wanted to do: Build the most well-rounded team.

Transition tag

What is the transition tag? Glad you asked. The seldom-used designation does not return any compensation. Meaning, if the Vikings were to sign Darnold to the transition tag, and Darnold were to sign elsewhere, Minnesota would not receive any draft picks in return.

The transition tag makes sense for teams seeking more time to make their decision, and teams potentially wanting the right to match an offer without that player leaving the building. It would give the Vikings first right of refusal to any offer Darnold receives.

Last year, the New England Patriots applied the transition tag to safety Kyle Dugger. The move kept Duggar in New England at a more palatable cost. Had another team wooed him with a longer-termed deal, the Patriots would have been able to sign him to a comparable offer.

This might be a sensible strategy for Darnold. First, the transition tag hovers around $35 million for quarterbacks, considerably less than the franchise tag. Second, the transition tag would not leave the Vikings at the whim of the trade market. And third, another month before making the final decision means more time to assess McCarthy’s progress.

Would the Vikings be willing to take on $35 million given their other needs? Would they forego the opportunity to receive draft pick compensation? Those questions may prevent Minnesota from opting to go this route.

Test free agency

Think of it almost like a checklist. If McCarthy’s health continues to trend the way it is, and the Vikings decide their roster is better off without a hefty cap hit at QB, and no other team expresses interest in trading for Darnold, and the Vikings want to create a chance for a compensatory pick, letting Darnold walk is the understandable path.

There aren’t guarantees. McCarthy showed promise last fall, but young quarterbacks come with uncertainty. The team’s free-agent signings could cancel out any compensatory pick. Still, this is the most realistic route if the Vikings are still committed to their chosen path before 2024 (letting Kirk Cousins hit free agency to build an optimal roster around a young QB).

Darnold produced unexpectedly in 2024, upholding the competitive portion of the “competitive rebuild” strategy general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah outlined when he took the job. With a refreshed salary cap and drafted QB later, it’s time to see if the rebuilding portion of the last few years can maintain the competitiveness.