The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to shake up the lineup for the 2025 season. What that might look like is still being decided by manager Rob Thomson and his staff.
A significant change could be made at the top of the order, specifically the leadoff hitter. Kyle Schwarber has been the team’s leadoff hitter but may no longer hold that role heading into the upcoming season.
Schwarber isn’t a traditional leadoff hitter. Typically, speedy players who hit for contact assume that role, whereas Schwarber is a power hitter who draws walks and strikes out at a large rate. The Phillies’ offense struggled late in the 2024 season and carried into the playoffs. With relatively the same offense returning, the team is ready to make some changes to the lineup.
4 reasons Trea Turner is a good choice to be the Phillies’ leadoff hitter
Phillies superstar and team leader Bryce Harper has already stated that he’s open to moving around in the lineup, but he’s comfortable as the three-hole hitter. He’ll likely be the second, third or fourth hitter in the lineup this season.
The most logical fit as the Phillies’ leadoff hitter in 2025 is shortstop Trea Turner. He has speed, hits for average and doesn’t strike out as much as Schwarber.
“I like it,” Turner said about potentially being the Phillies’ leadoff hitter, per NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman. “I’ve always hit one or two, for the most part, in my career. I think it would be fun, it would be a little different, I haven’t done it for a few years now. Kinda get back to a little bit more speed.”
Batting average
Turner has found himself among the league leaders in batting average throughout his 10-year career. He’s a career .296 hitter and led the majors in 2021 with a .328 batting average. The highest batting average of his career came in 2016 when he hit .342 in 73 games.
Turner’s Phillies career got off to a slow start in 2023 after signing an 11-year, $300 million contract before the season. The fans decided to give the struggling star a standing ovation on Aug. 4, 2023, and it helped turn his season around. He was one of the hottest hitters in baseball during the final two months of the season.
Turner bounced back in 2024 and was selected as the National League’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. He finished the season with a .295 batting average, tied for the ninth-best in the majors.
Strikeout percentage
Schwarber struck out 197 times in 2024, the third most in baseball. He struck out 215 times in 2023 and 200 times in 2022, both leading the majors.
Turner struck out 98 times in 2024 and has never struck out more than 150 times in a single season. He’s continuously below the league average in strikeout percentage. Turner had an 18.2 percent strikeout rate a season ago compared to Schwarber’s 28.5 percent.
Leadoff hitters are meant to put the ball in play and get on base. Schwarber does an incredible job at drawing walks, but Turner will put the ball in play more often and be able to utilize his speed.
Running game
Turner has elite speed and understands how to use it effectively. He stole 30 or more bases six times in his career, including 46 in 2017. Turner led the NL twice in stolen bases.
Once Turner gets on base, his speed is an immediate weapon for the offense. His run-scoring and extra bases taken percentages are continuously well above average, and his stolen base percentage is as efficient as it can get. Turner was a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts in 2023.
Schwarber reached double-digit steals (10) one time throughout his 10-year career. He has 27 career steals and has been caught stealing 17 times. Turner is significantly better on the base paths.
Kyle Schwarber can protect Bryce Harper in Phillies’ lineup
Taking Schwarber out of the leadoff spot and replacing him with Turner will increase the Phillies’ opportunities to drive in runs. Schwarber and Harper are the team’s two biggest power and RBI threats.
Moving Schwarber down to the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup, assuming Harper remains in the three-hole, would give Harper a sense of protection behind him if he’s unable to deliver in a certain situation. Harper would be able to approach his at-bats more freely and not feel like he has to do everything and be perfect every time.
Schwarber has 652 career RBI compared to Turner’s 572. Schwarber has had 104 RBI in each of the previous two seasons. Turner had 100 RBI in 2022, the most in his career, and the next most he had in a season was 77 RBI.
With Turner at the top of the Phillies’ lineup, he can get on base, use his speed and let the big boys do the rest behind him.
