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Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell talks with QB Sam Darnold.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold was an afterthought heading into last offseason, but he’s now a central domino in how the next few months play out across the NFL.
That is, in large part, due to the monster season he produced (4,300 yards passing and 35 touchdowns) and the reverberations of that performance when it comes to Minnesota’s plans moving forward, the free agent market, the upcoming draft and potentially even the trade market.
Darnold was the subject of a major announcement on Friday, January 24, involving the league and its end-of-season awards. The Pro Football Writers of America, all of the members of which are accredited by the NFL, voted Darnold as the Most Improved Player of the Year.
“Vikings QB Sam Darnold is the PFWA’s 2024 Most Improved Player of the Year,” Emily Leiker of the Star Tribune reported Friday via X.
That distinction adds another layer to the debate surrounding Darnold and his value, both to the Vikings and elsewhere, as the offseason approaches.
Sam Darnold Projected to Earn Huge Contract in Free Agency
GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.
There are several ways one can gauge Darnold’s value. The first and simplest way is to examine his contract projections.
The low end of the spectrum has Darnold worth around $100 million over three years, which is more or less what the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers recently paid QBs Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, respectively.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) gauged Darnold’s value a bit higher than that at approximately $120 million over three years. Meanwhile, Spotrac projects the Vikings quarterback could garner as much as $160 million over a new four-year deal if he hits free agency in mid-March.
Part of the reason for that is Darnold’s performance in 2024 as well as his age of just 27 years. The other element is how weak the free agent and draft classes are under center this offseason.
Just two college quarterbacks, Cam Ward of Miami and Shedeur Sanders of Colorado, have first-round grades — both of which are lower than the player grade that J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings rookie QB and No. 10 overall pick in 2024, earned ahead of last year’s draft.
If the Vikings don’t extend Darnold, he will unquestionably enter free agency as the top QB available. And since there are at least a half dozen teams who need starters, several of which won’t be able to guarantee they can procure one in the draft, Darnold is going to have the leverage in every negotiation.
Vikings Face Tough Decision Between Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy
GettyMinnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Then there is Darnold’s value to the Vikings. He won the team 14 games, though he faltered over the final two contests when the lights were brightest.
It shouldn’t be omitted, however, that Minnesota lost its first two regular season contests back-to-back to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams before losing in Week 18 and in the first round of the playoffs to those same two opponents in that same order.
One can argue that Darnold crumbled when his team needed him most. However, one can also argue that the Lions and Rams — both of which have a great deal of familiarity with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and his system — may be the outliers when it comes to stifling Darnold’s success.
Darnold is a known quantity in Minnesota now, while McCarthy is not. Furthermore, Darnold doesn’t have the trade value that McCarthy does, despite the latter’s lack of NFL experience and his recent/relevant injury history (he missed his entire rookie campaign with a knee injury).
If the Vikings franchise tag and trade Darnold, they will probably be lucky to get a late second-round pick or early third-rounder in return. If they trade McCarthy, the team should be able to acquire a first-round pick and at least one other draft asset in return.
All of these value questions and answers may muddle Minnesota’s decision-making process this offseason, when the team is likely to commit to either Darnold or McCarthy long-term and try to flip the other for as many draft assets as possible.
Max Dible covers the NFL, NBA and MLB for Heavy.com, with a focus on the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns. He covered local and statewide news as a reporter for West Hawaii Today and served as news director for BigIslandNow.com and Pacific Media Group’s family of Big Island radio stations before joining Heavy. More about Max Dible
