The Buffalo Bills are still very much in the hunt for the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture as the season heads into its final stretch. Despite battling through injuries, some uncharacteristic errors, and a subpar outing from their star quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills managed to grind out a tight 24-21 victory over the New England Patriots. This crucial win keeps their dreams of securing a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference postseason well alive.

Sitting at a strong 12-3, the Bills have their eyes firmly set on catching up to the Kansas City Chiefs, who currently hold a 14-1 record. The path to the top seed, though, requires a wholehearted finish from Buffalo, winning both of their remaining games, while also hoping for the Chiefs to slip and lose their final pair of matchups.

Come Week 17, the Bills will have a more defined picture of their potential playoff seeding as the Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens all take the field on Christmas Day. Currently, Buffalo holds onto the No. 2 seed, with Pittsburgh and Baltimore trailing by two games at 10-5. One of those teams will eventually claim the AFC North, while the other settles for a wild card spot, guaranteeing it will trail behind Buffalo in the seeding order.

Now, let’s break down the scenarios. If both Buffalo and Kansas City conclude with identical 14-3 records, the Bills would leap to the No. 1 seed due to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, courtesy of their compelling 30-21 triumph in Week 11.

On the flip side, Buffalo can’t drop below the No. 3 seed. Their latest win, combined with the Houston Texans’ 27-19 defeat at the hands of Kansas City, ensures as much. Houston, three games behind the Bills with just two left to play, can claim a head-to-head tiebreaker, but it’s not enough to surpass Buffalo.

Switching gears to Kansas City, they can clinch the top seed with a single victory or merely a Buffalo loss over the final two weeks.

For Buffalo to cement the No. 2 seed, a loss each by Pittsburgh and Baltimore would suffice – or they could simply take care of business themselves by winning one more game.