Miami meet with the Ravens able to clinch the No 1 seed while the Dolphins can stay in the hunt and win the AFC East

As the regular season draws to a close, we’ll take a look each Friday at a game likely to affect the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes are rising and falling. And, so we don’t neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No 1 pick.

Game of the week
Miami Dolphins (11-4) v Baltimore Ravens (12-3)

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson drops back to pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the third quarter of Monday’s game at Levi’s Stadium. Can anyone derail Lamar Jackson and the white-hot Baltimore Ravens?

Story of the season: The unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Miami enter with the most explosive attack in the NFL guided by head coach Mike McDaniel. The 40-year-old offensive schemer has wrung every last drop of talent from his roster to record a league-best 411 yards per game that features the devastating speed of Tyreek Hill at wide receiver. His brilliance is impossible to overstate; 70 more yards will push him over 1,700 on the season and a career high at 29 years old.

On the other side of the field stands John Harbuagh, 21 years McDaniel’s senior, wielding the league’s finest defense fresh from shredding the Super Bowl favorite San Francisco 49ers. Baltimore brutalized Brock Purdy as they have done to opposing quarterbacks all season while giving up the league’s fewest points per game at 16. So that should make the Ravens the favorites come February. That is then, though.

Now, the prize for the only two teams in the AFC to have clinched a postseason spot so far: the all-important No 1 seed and a juicy first-round playoff bye.

What the Dolphins need to do to win: Miami have a mammoth task in maintaining their offensive machine without Jaylen Waddle due to a high ankle sprain. The Dolphins will miss his superior speed and skill as a No 2 mean defenses are kept from marking a No 1 – Hill – out of the game.

A look at last season’s spectacular 42-38 win at Baltimore points to the quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to rise in the face of extreme pressure. Miami’s QB threw six touchdowns on the day as his team roared back with 28 points in the final quarter. Hill’s unrivalled quickness still hands Miami an advantage over Baltimore’s secondary without Waddle though. Nobody is quicker so McDaniel can keep the Ravens running uphill by getting the ball into Hill’s hands and forcing the same errors in coverage that allowed such an epic comeback last season.

What the Ravens need to do to win: “It’s all about trying to make things look different and to lie to the quarterback as much as possible,” the Ravens secondary coach Chris Hewitt said in November. Baltimore’s disguised coverages cooked up by Hewitt and defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, put Purdy in an epic tailspin on Christmas Day and have been lethal all year leading to league best figures in sacks (53), takeaways (26) and a miserly average of 4.5 yards per play. Macdonald has to have faith in his unit’s ability to befuddle Miami into coughing up the ball by using their signature simulated pressure – making it look like the blitz is coming when it’s not – then arrowing Jadeveon Clowney in to ransack the offensive line. The pass rush may only blitz 21% of the time but win 46% of those efforts, the third-best rate in the NFL. Stay patient, pull the trigger at the right moment and Tagovailoa could fall, like most others have, under such head-swimming shadow play.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of Monday’s game.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of Monday’s game. Photograph: Jed Jacobsohn/AP

Playoff race risers and fallers
Head coach, Dan Campbell, has turned Detroit around completely since taking over. A once doomed franchise are 11-4 and can now boast winning their division for the first time in 30 years. The Lions’ impressive record also confirms a home playoff game for only the third time since 1957. The NFC’s No 1 seed is even still on the table but the No 2 spot is more realistic with the 49ers ahead if they win their final two games. To earn the second ticket they have to start by landing another milestone in their incredible season: beating the 10-5 Dallas Cowboys. Campbell should be confident as the Lions’ destructive offensive line coupled with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the best one-two punch running back duo in the NFL (both on pace for 1,000 yards), are peaking while the Cowboys’ offense has misfired against Super Bowl contenders this year. Another win on Saturday night will have Detroit feeling more than mere contenders.