Super Bowl Sunday is finally here, two weeks after the Philadelphia Eagles punched their ticket to the big game with a blowout win over the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game. And you know what? I think they’re going to win for the following 10 reasons.
1) The Eagles’ offensive line will win the line of scrimmage in the run game, and, you know, they have Saquon Barkley
The Eagles have run the ball well against almost every team they have faced this season:
| Opponent | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Packers | 38 | 144 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Falcons | 37 | 186 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Saints | 25 | 172 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Buccaneers | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Browns | 36 | 116 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Giants | 45 | 269 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Bengals | 39 | 161 | 4.1 | 3 |
| Jaguars | 46 | 237 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Cowboys | 38 | 187 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Commanders | 40 | 228 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Rams | 45 | 314 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Ravens | 33 | 140 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Panthers | 31 | 209 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Steelers | 42 | 131 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Commanders | 39 | 211 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Cowboys | 42 | 179 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Giants | 25 | 51 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Packers | 34 | 169 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rams | 34 | 285 | 8.4 | 3 |
| Commanders | 36 | 229 | 6.4 | 7 |
| TOTAL | 725 | 3731 | 5.1 | 39 |
Their 3731 rushing yards are the most in NFL history (regular season plus playoffs).
The Eagles’ lowest rushing output of the season (not including a Week 18 “resting starters” game) was Week 4 in Tampa. They ran 20 times for 113 yards (5.7 YPC) and a TD in that game.
If they averaged 113 rushing yards per game this season, they’d have finished 15th, top half of the NFL.
They ran it well against teams with very good run defenses like the Ravens, Packers, and Buccaneers, and they were unstoppable against the bad run defenses.
Their run game has also hit another gear in the playoffs, as they have 104 carries for 683 yards (6.6 YPC) and 10 TDs. Opposing defenses have focused on stopping the Eagles’ rushing attack all season, and it doesn’t matter — the Eagles run on them anyway.
The Chiefs have an above average run defense, as we delved into a bit during the week, but they are bad stopping the run against 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR). And oh hey, guess what personnel package the Eagles run out of the most…
When thinking of the one thing that either of these two teams can really hang their hat on and know it will very likely be successful, in my opinion it’s the Eagles’ rushing attack.
2) The offensive line should also provide good protection in the passing game
Chiefs DT Chris Jones is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. He was named First-Team All-Pro each of the last three seasons, and was Second-Team All-Pro in 2018, 2020, and 2021. He’s going to be in the Hall of Fame one day.
But what makes Jones so dangerous is that you never really know where he is going to line up. If you’ve seen Chiefs games this year, you may have seen the telecast point out that he’ll sort of roam around pre-snap, and pick the offensive lineman that he wants to rush against.
He is particularly menacing against opposing offensive lines with obvious weak links.
The Eagles’ offensive line has no weak links, and they appear to be fully healthy after Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson were hobbled in the NFC Championship Game.
Otherwise, the Chiefs’ pass rush isn’t that scary. George Karlaftis is a good player, but nothing that Lane Johnson and/or Jordan Mailata can’t handle.
The Chiefs ranked 18th in sacks in 2024. The Eagles played 10 games against teams ranked in the top 12 in sacks.
Steve Spagnuolo is a master getting free rushers via the blitz, but blitzes tend to not be as effective when you have to employ them to get pressure.
3) Jalen Hurts won’t have to win this game on his own
In the Eagles’ loss in the Super Bowl two years ago, Hurts was probably the best player on the field. Yes, he had a fumble returned by the Chiefs defense for a TD, but he was also 27-for-38 for 304 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, and a passer rating of 103.4. He also ran 15 times for 70 yards and 3 TDs.
Eagles running backs combined for 17 carries for 45 yards in that game, and the Birds’ defense didn’t show up. Hurts nearly carried the Eagles to a Super Bowl anyway.
If Hurts is anywhere near as good on Sunday as he was in that game, the Eagles will win in a blowout.
But that’s not really what they need from him this time around. Hurts has gone nine straight games without throwing an INT, and he has thrown just one INT in his last 15 games. If he continues to protect the football like he has for the last four months while making the plays that are there, the rest of the Eagles’ roster can carry him instead of the other way around.
4) A.J. Brown and/or DeVonta Smith should get favorable matchups against the Chiefs’ cornerbacks
My bet is that A.J. Brown will be followed around all day by star CB Trent McDuffie. If so, (a) I still like that matchup for Brown, but also (b) DeVonta Smith should have favorable matchups against CB2 Jaylen Watson and Chamarri Conner.
If there’s one spot where the Eagles feel great about their matchups from week-to-week, it’s always Brown and Smith vs. (fill in the opposing defense’s corners).
The Chiefs have good corners, but the Eagles’ staff will surely like these matchups, as usual.
5) Dallas Goedert could be poised for a big day
Goedert missed three games early in the season (Weeks 7-9) and was on IR late in the regular season (Weeks 14-17).
The Eagles played Goedert in their meaningless Week 18 game against the Giants, allowing him to get his feet wet a bit before the playoffs. He only played 13 snaps in his tune-up appearance, catching 4 passes for 55 yards.
In the playoffs, Goedert has been a key factor, catching 15 passes on 18 targets for 188 yards (10.4 yards per target), and 1 TD, which happened to be the biggest offensive play of the day in the Wild Card Round against the Packers.
The Chiefs allowed the second most receptions (106) and the most yards (1191) in the NFL to opposing tight ends this season.
6) The Eagles should control the line of scrimmage defensively, too
The NFL’s top 10 rushers this season:
| Player | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Saquon Barkley, PHI | 345 | 2005 | 5.8 | 13 |
| Derrick Henry, BAL | 325 | 1921 | 5.9 | 16 |
| Bijan Robinson, ATL | 304 | 1456 | 4.8 | 14 |
| Jonathan Taylor, IND | 303 | 1431 | 4.7 | 11 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | 250 | 1412 | 5.6 | 16 |
| Josh Jacobs, GB | 301 | 1329 | 4.4 | 15 |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 316 | 1299 | 4.1 | 14 |
| Chuba Hubbard, CAR | 250 | 1195 | 4.8 | 10 |
| Aaron Jones, MIN | 255 | 1138 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Bucky Irving, TB | 207 | 1122 | 5.4 | 8 |
The Eagles’ defense faced Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard, and Bucky Irving.
The Chiefs’ running backs were nowhere near the level of those above players:
| Player | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Kareem Hunt | 200 | 728 | 3.6 | 7 |
| Isiah Pecheco | 83 | 310 | 3.7 | 1 |
The Chiefs do some creative stuff in the run game with speedy WR Xavier Worthy, but they more or less run it with their backs to keep opposing offenses honest.
They only ran it on 42.1% of their plays this season, an oddly low number for a team that went 15-2 during the regular season. The only playoff team that ran it with less frequency was the Texans.
In the Super Bowl two years ago, the Chiefs ran it more than expected, and they were effective. Pecheco and RB2 Jerick McKinnon combined for 19 rushes for 110 yards (5.8 YPC) and a TD. Mahomes added 6 carries for 44 yards.
But they were also a more efficient running team that season. Pecheco, for example, averaged 1.2 more yards per carry in 2022 (4.9) than he did in 2024 (3.7).
Including the playoffs, the Eagles have allowed 104.4 rushing yards per game, 8th best in the NFL, and 4.3 yards per carry (11th best).
It would be a pretty big surprise if the Chiefs came out running against the Eagles again, and one the Eagles would probably welcome.
7) The Eagles’ defensive line should be able to pressure Patrick Mahomes
We’ve detailed the Chiefs’ offensive line quite a bit over the last week, but it looks like this:
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Joe Thuney | Mike Caliendo | Creed Humphrey | Trey Smith | Jawaan Taylor |
At RT, Taylor is a penalty machine who is susceptible to speed rushers. He’s going to face a steady diet of Nolan Smith, who is as athletic and speedy on the edge as it gets. I love that matchup for the Eagles.
LT has been a problem spot for the Chiefs all season. They tried three different guys there, who all got benched, before moving Thuney from his normal LG spot out to LT.
Thuney is a very good guard. He is not a very good LT, and he’s not built for the position. I like that matchup for Josh Sweat.
And finally, Caliendo filled in for Thuney at LG. That is a major downgrade at LG.
The Chiefs have two very good linemen in Humphrey at C and Smith at RG.
So, that brings us to Jalen Carter, the Eagles’ best defensive player, who usually lines up opposite the RG. The Chiefs will have to decide if they want to try to single-block him with Smith, or double him with Smith and Humphrey.
Spoiler: If the Chiefs regularly single-block him, Carter will wreak havoc all day. If they double him with Smith and Humphrey, then the Eagles will successfully be occupying the Chiefs’ two best offensive linemen with one player, while the three concern spots at LT, LG, and RT will all have to block one-on-one.
Add in that the Eagles’ secondary of Quinyon Mitchell, Darrius Slay, Cooper DeJean, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Reed Blankenship helped the Eagles have the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL this season, and they’ll allow the pass rush more time to get after Mahomes.
The favorable matchups the Eagles should have against the Chiefs’ offensive line have to be Andy Reid’s biggest concern in this matchup.
8) The Eagles have beaten good quarterbacks this season, unlike before their last Super Bowl matchup against Mahomes
In the two seasons leading up to the Eagles’ first Super Bowl matchup against the Chiefs, here’s a list of the quarterbacks they beat, in chronological order:
- Washed Matt Ryan
- Sam Darnold
- Pre-resurgence Jared Goff
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Trevor Siemian
- Zach Wilson
- Garrett Gilbert
- Mike Glennon / Jake Fromm
- Taylor Heinicke
- Mid-resurgence Jared Goff
- Kirk Cousins
- Carson Wentz
- Trevor Lawrence
- Kyler Murray
- Cooper Rush
- Kenny Pickett
- Davis Mills
- Even more washed Matt Ryan
- Aaron Rodgers with a broken thumb
- Ryan Tannehill
- Daniel Jones
- Justin Fields
- Davis Webb
- Daniel Jones
- Brock Purdy / Josh Johnson / Brock Purdy with a limp rag for a throwing arm
In the two seasons leading up to this Super Bowl matchup, the Eagles beat Mahomes himself, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford x3, and Jayden Daniels x2.
If you happen to think Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, and Tua Tagovailoa are good quarterbacks too, the Eagles beat all of them as well.
I guess the point here is that the Eagles hadn’t proven they could beat a decent quarterback last time around. This time around, they’ve more than proven they can beat the best of the best.
9) The Chiefs’ perceived coaching advantage maybe isn’t as massive as it seems
Andy Reid is a master game-planner and one of the best coaches in NFL history. He has seen everything, and yet never stops inventing. In the last Super Bowl, he absolutely ate Jonathan Gannon’s lunch.
But, his game management still leaves something to be desired, as it did when he coached in Philly. Reid does not like to go for it on fourth down, relative to other teams around the league. Here’s where the Chiefs have ranked each season since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018:
| Year | 4th down attempts | NFL Rank |
| 2018 | 15 | T-20 |
| 2019 | 10 | 32 |
| 2020 | 16 | T-23 |
| 2021 | 15 | 31 |
| 2022 | 12 | T-30 |
| 2023 | 20 | T-21 |
| 2024 | 17 | 26 |
In the NFC Championship Game, the Commanders converted two fourth downs, and then oddly settled for a field goal attempt on a 4th and 3 at the Eagles’ 16 yard line.
In this NFL Films video at the 2:40 mark, while talking to his players after that drive, defensive line coach Clint Hurtt said, “17-play drive and 3 points ain’t gonna f****** beat us.”
That’s exactly right, and if the Chiefs settle for 3 as Reid often does, I don’t think that will be good enough to beat this outstanding Eagles team.
The Eagles are the better team, but everyone seems to be picking the Chiefs on the premise that “They just win,” or, “Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT.” But the reality is that the Chiefs should be approaching this game with an underdog mentality, and I don’t know that they will.
10) The Eagles are a complete team, not an individual
The Chiefs have the best player in the sport in Patrick Mahomes, which is obviously a huge check mark in their favor. From 1-to-53, however, the Eagles are a much more talented team. They are far better in the trenches, their defense is very clearly better, as are their offensive skill position players.
Yes, Mahomes has been there and done that, but this is not one of the better Chiefs teams that has made it to the Super Bowl over their extraordinarily impressive 7-year run. They are vulnerable in a number of areas, and the Eagles have exploited teams with vulnerabilities all season.
