The Kansas City Chiefs are vying to clinch their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance but will have to face a final test on Sunday evening in an epic matchup against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game.
Few teams in NFL history have found the kind of playoff success that Kansas City has achieved in recent seasons, but Buffalo is tailor-made to win big games against the Chiefs.
In fact, the Bills served Kansas City its only meaningful loss during the regular season, though the Chiefs still managed to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.
Heading into Sunday’s pivotal postseason matchup, the experts at Pro Football Network shared some key stats about Kansas City and Buffalo that point toward a Chiefs win.
Take a look at their analysis below:
Oct 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) drops back to pass as Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller (40) defends during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
- The Chiefs are narrow favorites over the Bills, opening as 1.5-point favorites at home.
- While Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs thrive as underdogs, they are just as dangerous when favored by slim margins. The Chiefs are 4-0 this season when favored by a field goal or less. According to PFN’s QB+ metric, Mahomes has delivered three of his eight best single-game grades this season in these games—though the narrow win at Atlanta in September stands out as the exception.
Nov 17, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir (10) is tackled by Kansas City Chiefs safety Bryan Cook (6) after making a catch in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
The Bills have been one of the league’s best defenses on early downs this season, ranking fifth in EPA per play (0.08) on first and second down. However, their performance drops significantly on third down, where they rank 31st in EPA per play (-0.26) and have allowed the fifth-highest third-down conversion rate (44%).
Oct 10, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles from Buffalo Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau (50) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
The Chiefs have gone eight straight games without a turnover, the longest streak since turnovers became an official stat in 1933.
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Chiefs excel at blitzing effectively. Including the playoffs, Kansas City blitzes at the ninth-highest rate in the league (30%) and ranks 10th in pressure rate (44%) when sending extra rushers. Against the Texans, the Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes—the highest pressure rate in any game this season among defenses that blitzed 15 or more times (out of 76 such games).
Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) following the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mahomes has posted the higher QB+ grade in five of his eight matchups against Allen, including all three playoff meetings. However, the difference between their performances has been razor-thin: Allen has averaged a 79.0 grade, while Mahomes has averaged 79.3.
