Ken Rosenthal’s Bold Prediction: How the Chicago Cubs Can Win Big in 2025

The Chicago Cubs have long been a focal point of Major League Baseball (MLB), blending a historic legacy with modern aspirations. In recent weeks, the Cubs have shown flashes of brilliance, with standout performances and key wins reigniting hope among fans. Ken Rosenthal, MLB’s premier sports reporter and analyst, recently shared a compelling perspective that has the baseball world buzzing. In his latest commentary, Rosenthal outlined the conditions under which the Cubs could dominate the National League Central and make a deep postseason run. His statement, “They’ll win if…,” has sparked widespread discussion, offering a roadmap for the Cubs’ success in 2025. This article dives into Rosenthal’s insights, recent Cubs performances, and the critical factors that could propel the team to glory.

The Cubs’ Recent Surge: A Team on the Rise

The 2025 MLB season has been a rollercoaster for the Cubs, but their recent games have showcased their potential. After acquiring superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros, the Cubs’ lineup has transformed. Tucker, batting .313 with a 1.027 OPS through the first 20 games, leads the team in home runs (5), RBIs (18), and walks (16), including three intentional walks. His presence has elevated the Cubs to lead the league in runs scored (122), hits (182), doubles (38), and walks (89). Rosenthal noted on Foul Territory that Tucker’s impact instills fear in opposing pitchers, making the Cubs’ batting order a formidable force.

Beyond Tucker, young talents like Michael Busch are showing signs of a breakout campaign. Busch’s hot streak has complemented Tucker, ensuring the lineup isn’t a one-man show. Pitching-wise, lefty Justin Steele remains a cornerstone, under club control through 2027, providing stability to the rotation. These performances have positioned the Cubs as legitimate contenders in a wide-open NL Central, a division Rosenthal describes as “baseball’s land of opportunity”.

Ken Rosenthal’s “They’ll Win If…” Blueprint

Rosenthal’s analysis hinges on a few critical conditions for the Cubs to capitalize on their potential. His “They’ll win if…” statement emphasizes strategic roster moves, aggressive spending, and leveraging the team’s market size. Here’s a breakdown of his key points:

1. Aggressive Roster Upgrades

Rosenthal believes the Cubs must continue to pursue high-caliber talent to complement Tucker. He previously suggested a bold plan: trading infielder Isaac Paredes for Tucker and signing free agent Alex Bregman to play third base. While Bregman ultimately signed with the Boston Red Sox, Rosenthal’s point remains—adding elite players is essential. The Cubs’ failure to land Bregman, reportedly due to a non-competitive offer, highlights ownership’s cautious spending, a recurring critique from Rosenthal.

To win, the Cubs need to target impact players, whether through trades or free agency. Names like Jesus Luzardo, a pitcher rumored to be on the Cubs’ radar, could bolster the rotation alongside Steele. A reliable closer and additional bullpen depth are also critical, as past seasons exposed weaknesses in late-inning situations.

2. Ownership Embracing Big-Market Status

Rosenthal has repeatedly called out Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts for not operating the franchise like the big-market powerhouse it is. Despite ranking among MLB’s top revenue generators, the Cubs’ payroll, currently around $180 million (14th in the league), lags behind heavyweights like the Dodgers and Mets, who exceed $300 million. Rosenthal argues that Ricketts’ claim of “breaking even” is unconvincing, especially in a top-3 market with a historic, sold-out ballpark.

For the Cubs to win, ownership must loosen the purse strings. Rosenthal’s frustration peaked when the Cubs didn’t pursue superstar Juan Soto, with Ricketts’ financial conservatism cited as the reason. Investing in top-tier talent would give president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer the resources to build a championship-caliber roster.

3. Capitalizing on the NL Central’s Weakness

The NL Central is one of baseball’s weakest divisions, offering the Cubs a golden opportunity. Unlike the hypercompetitive NL East or West, the Central lacks a dominant team. Rosenthal emphasizes that an aggressive offseason could make the Cubs the class of the division. Their current roster, bolstered by Tucker and young prospects like Matt Shaw, positions them as favorites, but Rosenthal warns that complacency could squander this chance.

4. Sustaining Team Chemistry

Rosenthal has long valued the Cubs’ clubhouse dynamics, noting their 2023 team dinners and strong collective makeup as intangible strengths. Players like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ, praised for their work ethic and leadership, create a cohesive unit. Rosenthal believes maintaining this chemistry, alongside talent upgrades, will keep the Cubs resilient through the season’s grind.

Challenges and Criticisms

Despite their potential, the Cubs face challenges. Rosenthal and other analysts, including ESPN’s Buster Olney, have criticized ownership’s risk-averse approach. The Cubs’ payroll, while in the top ten historically, includes dead money from past bad contracts, limiting flexibility. The trade of Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, saving $27.5 million, was a financial move that raised eyebrows, especially after acquiring Tucker. Fans and media question whether the Cubs prioritize profits over winning.

Pitching depth remains a concern. While Steele is a star, the bullpen has been inconsistent, and injuries to players like Adbert Alzolay have hurt. Rosenthal noted that adding “a few guys” in the Jorge Lopez tier could stabilize the relief corps, but the Cubs have been slow to act.

The Path Forward

To fulfill Rosenthal’s vision, the Cubs must act decisively. Here’s a proposed plan based on his insights:

• Target Key Free Agents or Trades: Pursue a top-tier pitcher like Luzardo or a proven closer to shore up the bullpen. A third baseman like Matt Chapman, still available in free agency, could fill Bregman’s void.
• Increase Payroll: Ricketts must approve a payroll closer to $220 million, aligning with the Cubs’ market size and fan expectations.
• Develop Young Talent: Prospects like Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros should be integrated strategically, balancing immediate needs with long-term growth.
• Leverage Tucker’s Impact: Build the lineup around Tucker, ensuring Busch and others continue to produce to keep pitchers honest.

Conclusion

Ken Rosenthal’s “They’ll win if…” commentary has reframed the Chicago Cubs as a team on the cusp of greatness—if they seize the moment. With Kyle Tucker’s transformative presence, a talented core, and a weak division, the Cubs have a clear path to success. However, overcoming ownership’s financial caution and addressing roster gaps are non-negotiable. As the 2025 season unfolds, the baseball world will watch closely to see if the Cubs can live up to Rosenthal’s bold prediction and return to their World Series-winning ways.