Perhaps the ultimate swinging doors moment in NBA history came in the 1984 draft when the Portland Trail Blazers passed on Michael Jordan and chose Sam Bowie with the second overall pick. That allowed the Chicago Bulls to pick Jordan, who would lead the franchise to six championships on his way to becoming the greatest player in basketball history.

Outside of landing the No. 1 pick in 2008 (Derrick Rose), Chicago’s history with draft lottery luck hasn’t been the greatest since the Jordan incident; neither has the organization’s scouting, draft-night management or roster construction, for that matter.

That’s led to years of mediocrity on the court and fan frustration. As the team’s current front office has proven to be rather abysmal, lucking into a high draft pick and another Jordan moment may be the Bulls’ best chance at turning around a moribund franchise. What are the chances that it happens this summer?

Bulls odds of landing No. 1 or top-4 pick in 2025 NBA Draft

Despite the logical course of action for the franchise being tanking as hard as possible, Chicago just can’t seem to escape the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. As of March 5, the Bulls are 10th in the East standings, 2.5 games ahead of the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.

At 24-38, Chicago has the eighth-worst record in the NBA. That gives the Bulls the eighth-best odds, which come in at 6.0 percent, of landing the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft and a generational talent in Duke’s Cooper Flagg.

Chicago has slightly better odds—6.3 percent—of landing at No. 2 in the lottery. That percentage increases to 6.7 and 7.2 for the third and fourth picks, respectively.

It will take a miraculous surge by the Nets or Sixers for the Bulls to land any better than the eighth-best odds. Since that’s wildly unlikely, it will take a miraculous rise on lottery night for Chicago to have a chance at Flagg.

Or someone could always pull the Sam Bowie-Michael Jordan move like Portland did 41 years ago.