Al Horford, Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics are seeking a second straight NBA championship. Joe Mazzulla’s team is considered one of the favorites heading into the postseason.

However, once we look beyond the playoffs, there are a significant number of questions surrounding the Celtics. As currently constructed, Boston’s payroll for next season sits around $500 million in salaries and taxes. It’s expected that the front office will look to make some moves to reduce that bill while also avoiding the basketball penalties associated with the second apron.

According to a March 28 report from Jake Fischer via the SteinLine Newsletter, Al Horford could be a flight risk in the summer. Horford is heading into unrestricted free agency. Fischer has reported that multiple teams around the NBA are monitoring his availability and would be willing to make offers starting at $6 million per season.

“After a tremendous campaign helping to offset Porzingis’ various absences, Horford will be the one rotation Celtic entering free agency this summer,” Fischer reported.” Replacing this season’s $9.5 million salary with a minimum contract next season would certainly help with Boston’s tax bill, too.”

Fischer continued.

“…Boston, mind you, has lost Horford in free agency before and more than one rival cap strategist out there has indicated that the 38-year-old could well attract offers starting at the projected $6 million taxpayer midlevel exception.”

At 38 years old, he will likely be signing one or two-year deals moving forward. Boston will likely want to lower his salary in line with a veteran minimum deal. Therefore, Horford will have a decision to make. He can either take a team-friendly discount and see out the final years of his career with the Celtics. Or, he can take the money and increase his career earnings before bowing out of the league.

Wyc Grousbeck: Basketball Penalities Are a Problem

During a recent appearance on WEEI, Wyc Grousbeck detailed the difficulties of being a second-apron luxury tax team.

“It’s not the luxury tax bill, it’s the basketball penalties,” Grousbeck said. “The new CBA was designed by the league to stop teams from going crazy. They decided that it’s not good enough to go after the wallets because the fans can be like, ‘Hey find someone who can afford to spend $500 million dollars a year or whatever it is, like the English Premier League..The basketball penalties mean that it’s even more of a premium now to have your basketball general manager be brilliant and lucky. Because you have to navigate because you can’t stay in the second apron, nobody will, I predict, for the next 40 years of the CBA, no one is going to stay in the second apron more than two years.”

Brad Stevens now faces arguably the most difficult task of his front office tenure. While the futures of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are secure, everyone else could be available at the right price.

Celtics Could Trade Key Starters in The Summer

According to Fischer, both Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis are potential trade candidates in the summer. Fischer noted how both could save the Celtics hundreds of millions in tax payments, while both veterans have also struggled for health throughout the season.

“The two major salaries that league figures are monitoring in possible future trades: Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday,” Fischer reported. “…In a vacuum, swapping out KP for a player with a two-years-of-service minimum contract could save Boston roughly $218 million in taxes, dropping their extra charges to just $63 million…Holiday’s three seasons and $104 million owed after this one loom as a far pricier contract given the Celtics’ considerable second apron challenges and thus could make him Boston’s most logical rotation stalwart to deal.”

Whatever Stevens decides to do, it’s fair to assume the Celtics will look different entering next season. However, the curveball will come if Boston wins a second championship. After all, what would losing Holiday, Porzingis or Horford mean to the chances of a three-peat? Fortunately, Stevens is one of the best basketball minds in the business.

As such, Celtics fans must remain confident in Stevens’ ability to figure things out. Even if that means they don’t like some of the moves that await them in the summer.