Tiers have emerged in the NFL. The question now is where do the Green Bay Packers fall? It’s December. We know who is good, and who is playing out the string of the season for NFL Draft positioning.

The Green Bay Packers are making the playoffs. They have a 98 percent chance, and would need to essentially lose every game the rest of the season to miss the playoffs. They’re also essentially eliminated from competing for the NFC North. They’re what amounts to four games behind the Detroit Lions with four games to play.

That game is in Minnesota. The Packers would need to beat the Vikings, and would need them to lose one additional game for the Packers to move into the 5th seed. They’re currently one game against of the Washington Commanders for the seventh seed. That makes the most likely seed for Green Bay either sixth or seventh. Some of that is a byproduct of playing in a historically good division.

The Packers are 9-4, but in third place in the NFC North. The Lions and Vikings have fewer losses combined (3) than the Packers have. That’s not an indictment on Green Bay. They’ve been a good team this season. If you remove NFC North games, they’ve lost one game this year. The issue Green Bay is going to face, is the road they’re going to have to take when they get to the postseason.

In 2010, they famously took on the role of road warriors. They won road games in Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago before beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. The Packers had faced all three playoff teams they had to face that year, and went 2-2. They split their season series with Chicago, won the season opener in Philadelphia, and lost a heartbreaker in Atlanta.

They also matched up incredibly well with those teams, and had a strong roster. This year, Green Bay’s theoretical road to the Super Bowl would travel through three of the toughest places to play in the NFL. They’ll get a preview of one of those places this weekend when they visit Seattle. The Seattle Seahawks would be Green Bay’s opponent in the Wild Card round if the season ended today. Century Link Field has been far from a friendly confines for the Packers in the past. If the Packers were able to beat the Seahawks and move on, they’d likely have to travel to Philadelphia.

The Eagles are a big, physical team. The Packers are able to match up with them physically, but did struggle slowing down Saquon Barkley in this year’s season opener. Barkley may win the rushing title along with the MVP. He could set the all-time rushing record in the process. The Eagles may be the most talented team in the whole conference. If the Packers were to win in Philadelphia, Detroit could be on deck. The Lions are 6-2 against Green Bay since Dan Campbell was hired. Beating Detroit, another physical team, while coming off a physical battle is a tough ask as well.

The Packers are capable, as they have shown all season. Of their four losses, three of them have come by one score. The reality also remains the Packers play in a city called Titletown. This is a season that was supposed to be a year they contended for the Super Bowl. It’s hard to envision satisfaction in the organization and the fanbase if they were to be a lower seed in the NFC playoffs before bowing out in the Divisional Round. At some point, the Packers need to win these games they’re coming up short in. Winning the Super Bowl requires beating good teams. The Packers’ best wins at this point are against the Los Angeles Rams, who were decimated by injury, and the Houston Texans. When they’ve faced the best teams on their schedule, they’ve come up short. That’s not going to be good enough when the postseason hits.