The Green Bay Packers made a notable investment by signing seasoned offensive guard Aaron Banks during the initial phase of the 2025 NFL free agency. Analysts have criticized the team for overpaying to secure their new starter.

According to Over the Cap, the Packers inked Banks to a four-year, $77 million contract, with $27 million guaranteed—a rare, extravagant move for them. This deal places Banks among only six NFL guards earning at least $19 million annually, ranking him above Packers Pro Bowl guard Elgton Jenkins. Pro Football Focus (PFF) considers this valuation excessive. The sports analytics site estimated Banks would sign for about $13 million less and rated the Packers’ deal as “below average.”

PFF also labeled him one of the top five “overpaid” free agents of the 2025 period. “The upside is that Banks just posted a career-high 65.4 overall grade in 2024 and has shown growth throughout his NFL tenure,” PFF noted on March 17. “However, placing him as the sixth-highest-paid guard in the league is quite steep. The Packers are wagering on his further development.”

The Packers Are Taking a Gamble With the Aaron Banks Signing

While the skepticism about Banks’ contract is justified, it will take time for the Packers to determine whether their $77 million gamble on him will pay off. On the positive side, Banks has started 43 games at left guard over the last three seasons for the San Francisco 49ers, bringing veteran savvy to the Packers’ interior line.

ESPN Analytics reveals he achieved career-high win rates as both a run-blocker (69%) and a pass-blocker (91.7%) for the Niners in 2024. Banks will also have a cap hit of just $9.03 million for the Packers in 2025. However, Banks has shown some inconsistency as a pass-blocker beyond what his allowed sacks indicate, particularly under pressure in crucial games.

He’s also yet to play all 17 games since becoming a regular starter in 2022, participating in less than 79% of offensive snaps each season (and only 71.83% in 2024). After 2025, Banks’ cap charges will increase significantly, costing $24.85 million against the cap in 2026, $22.25 million in 2027, and $20.75 million in 2028. The Packers probably won’t object to paying Banks handsomely if he lives up to expectations, but it does present a considerable amount of boom-or-bust potential for him in 2025.