Depending on the timing, the Minnesota Vikings’ decision on Sam Darnold could be a major catalyst for events to come — not only in free agency but the NFL draft as well.
The ideal situation for the quarterback, who said multiple times during the season he wouldn’t want to be anywhere else, would be to return to head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system in Minnesota on a long-term extension.
Darnold, 27, could continue to develop under one of the best offensive minds in football with wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison flanking him. What’s more, Darnold’s projected market value is approximately $40 million annually, which would likely translate into a four-year deal worth $160 million with more than half fully guaranteed — assuming the Vikings pay similarly to what the market appears likely to bear.
However, Darnold probably won’t get the chance to have his cake and eat it, too, in Minneapolis based on the latest predictions from national analysts.
“Most likely, Minnesota will choose to [franchise] tag Darnold or allow him to hit the market, and things could go either way,” Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report wrote on Saturday, Feb. 8.
The only chance Darnold has of landing a long-term extension is if the Vikings decide to trade J.J. McCarthy. That is a real option, as Minnesota owns just four picks in the upcoming draft (Nos. 24, 97, 140 and 161) and could potentially get another first-rounder inside the top 10 plus a Day 2 asset (third- or fourth-rounder) by trading McCarthy to the right team.
But that’s a risk, as McCarthy could turn out to be worth far more than that. Minnesota would also be betting huge on Darnold, who was great for most of the season but fell very flat in Week 18 and during Super Wildcard Weekend when the stakes were highest.
Heading to unrestricted free agency wouldn’t be the worst outcome for Darnold, though it would mean a new head coach, new system and new roster — and Minnesota is the only place he’s ever really thrived in seven NFL seasons.
A franchise tag situation is even worse because it limits his earning potential to one year instead of three or four, decreases his guaranteed money, runs the risk of costing him $100 million — give or take — if he tanks next season and renders him a potential trade chip for the Vikings until the mid-season deadline.
