One of the most notable and captivating elements of the Green Bay Packers’ offense this season has been their dominant running game. Ranked among the league’s elite, the Packers have amassed an impressive 2,209 rushing yards, placing them fourth overall in the NFL, and their 19 rushing touchdowns have earned them a fifth-place ranking. This powerful ground game has been a cornerstone of Green Bay’s success, blending consistency, efficiency, and explosive plays.

As the Packers gear up for their critical divisional matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, all eyes will be on their star running back, Josh Jacobs, who has been instrumental in this offensive surge. On the opposing side, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is well aware of the threat Jacobs poses and has emphasized the importance of tackling fundamentals when facing a back of his caliber.

“I think we’ve done a good job of tackling throughout the season,” Flores remarked during a press conference. “But Josh Jacobs makes me feel like we need to revisit and double down on the basics of tackling.”

A Clash of Strengths: Vikings Defense vs. Packers Ground Game

Statistically, the Vikings’ defense has been one of the most disciplined and effective units in the league when it comes to tackling. Their Pro Football Focus (PFF) tackling grade of 68.6 ranks third in the NFL, trailing only the Detroit Lions and New England Patriots. This level of discipline and physicality has been a hallmark of Minnesota’s defense in 2024. Yet, Jacobs represents a unique challenge—his combination of power, vision, and relentless motor make him a tough player to bring down.

Jacobs has proven to be a standout among running backs this season, ranking eighth in yards after contact per attempt (3.42) for backs with a minimum of 100 carries. It’s important to note that none of the players ahead of him in this category have matched his workload, highlighting his ability to sustain efficiency even with heavy usage. Simply put, Jacobs thrives in situations where others might falter, gaining yardage after first contact and extending plays for the Packers.

Statistical Battle: Who Holds the Edge?

On paper, the Vikings’ defense appears to have the upper hand in this matchup. Minnesota ranks second in Expected Points Added (EPA) and third in success rate against the run, showcasing their ability to stifle opposing ground games. Meanwhile, the Packers’ rushing offense, though formidable, sits at seventh in EPA and 13th in success rate—still strong, but not as dominant as Minnesota’s defensive metrics.

However, the stats only tell part of the story. In their previous meeting during Week 4, the Vikings managed to neutralize the Packers’ running game effectively, largely due to game flow. The Vikings jumped out to an early lead, forcing Green Bay to rely more heavily on their passing attack as they tried to mount a comeback. As a result, Jacobs was limited to just nine carries, though he made the most of his opportunities with 51 rushing yards, averaging an impressive 5.7 yards per attempt. Backup running back Emanuel Wilson added eight carries for 27 yards but struggled to match Jacobs’ efficiency.

That performance underlined Jacobs’ ability to maximize production even when the odds are stacked against him. Whether it’s squeezing through tight running lanes, breaking tackles, or outrunning defenders, Jacobs has shown he can create opportunities when the system might not.

Game Plan Implications

For the Packers, establishing the run will be crucial to their offensive success. Jacobs’ volume and effectiveness on the ground are central to their ability to control the clock, open up play-action opportunities, and maintain a balanced attack. Head coach Matt LaFleur is likely to lean heavily on Jacobs early and often, aiming to dictate the tempo and avoid the pass-heavy approach that played into Minnesota’s hands in their first encounter.

On the other side, Brian Flores and the Vikings defense know that stopping Jacobs is key to derailing Green Bay’s game plan. By containing Jacobs and forcing the Packers into obvious passing situations, the Vikings can unleash their pass rush and exploit the Packers’ weaknesses in pass protection. Flores has likely drilled his unit on gap discipline and wrapping up tackles, as any missed opportunity could lead to Jacobs breaking free for a game-changing play.

High Stakes in the NFC North

This matchup between the Packers’ rushing attack and the Vikings’ stout defense could very well decide the outcome of the game. For Green Bay, a strong performance on the ground will set the tone and keep their playoff hopes alive. For Minnesota, shutting down Jacobs not only disrupts the Packers’ rhythm but also gives their offense more opportunities to capitalize.

As Sunday’s game approaches, the battle in the trenches promises to be a must-watch aspect of this NFC North clash. With playoff positioning on the line, both teams will need to bring their best, and the outcome may hinge on whether Josh Jacobs can overcome one of the league’s most disciplined defenses—or whether the Vikings can stand tall and shut down Green Bay’s most obvious strength.