One of the NBA’s bigger surprises of the second half of the season is Chicago Bulls’ guard Josh Giddey’s stellar play. The former Oklahoma City Thunder castoff has transformed into one of the most impactful players in the league since the All-Star break.

Of the 300 players to appear in at least 10 games since February 20, Giddey ranks third in plus/minus at plus-10.3 and 10th in net rating at 15.4. The fourth-year guard has averaged 22.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.7 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers per contest. Over the 11-game stretch, Giddey is splashing 53.1 percent of his field goals and 52.2 percent of his triples.

Prior to the All-Star break, Giddey averaged 12.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. He shot merely 44.6 percent from the floor and 34.5 percent from beyond the arc. A 10.1 point per game increase while upping his field goal and three-point percentages by nearly 10 and 20 percentage points is miraculous.

The Bulls traded for Giddey knowing it was a high-risk, high-reward move

With Giddey’s impressive statistical output and prominent impact comes a looming, lucrative contract extension. The Bulls are aware of this and have been since the moment they traded Alex Caruso for the then-21-year-old point guard. However, the cost at which Giddey will come was surely unforeseen.

Rewind back to May of 2024. The first-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder had advanced to the second round of the NBA Playoffs to duke it out with the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks. Following a sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, the up-and-coming Thunder appeared to be on track to earn an NBA Finals appearance.

Unbeknownst to Oklahoma City, the Luka Doncic-led Mavericks stood in the way. After an initial win to go up 1-0, the Thunder lost the next four of five games. While the Thunder continued to lose, Giddey’s minutes began to dwindle. After not coming off the bench for a game in his career, Mark Daigneault decided to bench the 6-foot-8 guard after four consecutive subpar showings.

The Mavericks’ strategy to ignore Giddey on the perimeter discombobulated one of the league’s most efficient and high-powered offenses. Oklahoma City eclipsed 110 points just two times in the six-game series and Giddey averaged 6.2 points and shot 18.8 percent from three against Dallas.

A month later, Giddey requested a trade and the Thunder granted him his wish, shipping Giddey to Chicago in exchange for two-time All-NBA Defender Alex Caruso. Pundits around the league criticized the Bulls for acquiring the former sixth-overall pick. Aside from taking on Giddey despite his glaring weaknesses, writers and analysts dismissed the Bulls for failing to acquire any draft capital from the Thunder.

Almost a year later, the trade could be considered a win-win with the Bulls given the upper hand. Chicago has its point guard of the future who’s elevated those around him and proved to be a picturesque fit in Head Coach Billy Donovan’s uptempo, drive-and-kick offense.

Giddey’s strong play has forced the Bulls’ hand

While offering the Aussie $30-plus million seemed preposterous last summer, it’s now a reality. Giddey’s play is worthy of a lucrative contract—one that compares to lead guards who have inked rookie-scale contract extensions in recent years.

The Bulls, without a doubt, will have to shell out $150 million to retain Giddey. The salary range is similar to what Jalen Suggs and Immanuel Quickley earned after signing extensions last summer. For what it’s worth, Giddey is outplaying both guards this season, and unlike the aforementioned guards, he’s proven extremely durable.

Nonetheless, signing Giddey to a projected five-year, $150 million deal will place the Bulls in a bind, regardless of whether it’s the new norm for a starting point guard. Chicago is better off than most teams when it comes to salary cap space, with only one player on the books for more than $20 million next season.

However, numerous thought-provoking questions exist before handing Giddey a lucrative extension. Is 20 games enough of a sample size? Will Giddey’s shortcomings reappear and be magnified in the playoffs? Can the Bulls get by defensively, led by a Coby White-Giddey backcourt? Sure, the horrors of Patrick Williams’ five-year, $90 pact come to mind. But there’s a real concern here. Giddey’s phenomenal play has the Bulls in a bind, and if the 22-year-old reverts to old ways, the front office’s foregone conclusion of handing out a lucrative extension will set the franchise back for years.