As the Bulls commit to their rebuilding phase, several players may be on the move to make space for new talent. With his down performance this season, should the Bulls offer up Patrick Williams and his remaining guaranteed 3-year, $54-million contract?

Should the Bulls Look to Offload Patrick Williams’s Contract?

Williams’s Declined Efficiency Raises Questions for Chicago

It is safe to say that Patrick Williams’s ever-so-slight regression is leading him to the worst season of his five-year career. Williams is averaging 9.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in his 45 games this season. These stats are relatively similar to those of his previous seasons, but the concerns lie in his shooting efficiency.

Williams’ eFG% has declined to 46.6% from 52.5% last season. His league-adjusted shooting has always been near or above 100, but this season, it has fallen to 86, far below league average. Where his 3PT% has fallen to roughly league average at 35%, his 2PT% is sitting at a league-adjusted 74.

According to Positive Residual, Williams scored 52 points on 57 midrange attempts last season for a TS% of 46%. That was around the league average mark for inside shooting. This season, he has scored 32 points on 44 attempts so far, for a TS% of 36%.

These midrange shots are killing Williams’s efficiency and could be cause for concern. It may be chalked up to a symptom of a down year, but the value of his contract should raise eyebrows for the Bulls’ front office.

Is Williams’s Contract Overvalued in the NBA?

There are currently 24 players this season earning $15-20 million. That short list includes some notable names like Norman Powell, Klay Thompson, and Josh Hart.

Of those 24 players, Williams is currently sitting dead last in OLEBRON with -1.68. His estimated 12.2 points per 75 possessions is ranked 2nd last, only to Luguentz Dort, who has 12. His main role is as a versatile defender, so hopefully, his DLEBRON would be satisfactory. Unfortunately, he still sits in the bottom 10 with a metric of -0.34.

A player’s value should not be entirely based on broad statistics like LEBRON, but it is still an indicator that Williams’s play is not matching up to his relative contract value.

Should the Bulls Move Williams This Offseason?

If there is one thing a contending NBA team loves, it is a 3-and-D to put around their star scorers. Patrick Williams is a solidified 3-and-D player, but his efficiency raises questions and could lower his value this offseason. While a team may be willing to take a risk on it and see if he could return to his previous numbers, his lack of any significant improvement in five years is something to consider. His box numbers are all remarkably similar, which shows great consistency but means he is unlikely to make any significant leaps without a sizable usage increase.

For the Bulls, they know they will have a nine-point-per-game shooter who can guard the ball, but his large contract value hurts their ability to chase new talent this off-season. It would be a smart idea to move Williams in hopes of gaining younger talent in a player or 2nd round pick.