Dallas Cowboys Set to Make Risky, Yet Rewarding Draft Moves: Will They Go for the Upside?

Taking Risks with Upside in the NFL Draft

While the Dallas Cowboys are known for their methodical approach when it comes to hiring head coaches or free-agent signings, they’re not shy about taking risks when it comes to NFL Draft prospects. As the Cowboys look to strengthen their roster ahead of the 2024 season, they have their eyes set on some of the riskiest, yet potentially rewarding, players in the draft. A recent analysis by A to Z Sports draft expert Ian Valentino highlights two of these players—defensive tackle Walter Nolen and defensive lineman Shemar Stewart—as being among the riskiest prospects this year.

But why are these players considered high-risk, and more importantly, do they make sense for the Cowboys?

Walter Nolen: The Risk of Incredible Potential

Why He’s Risky:

Walter Nolen’s upside is undeniable. At 296 pounds, his combination of speed, agility, and quickness has drawn comparisons to elite defensive linemen like Gerald McCoy and Aaron Donald. His ability to change direction swiftly and disrupt plays makes him one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft. In 2024, Nolen’s performance soared, with his quarterback hurries tripling and his run stops improving significantly.

However, the skepticism surrounding Nolen stems from his inconsistency on the field and doubts about his drive to reach his full potential. After playing for six different schools over seven years, including both high school and college, Nolen’s development has been less than smooth, leading to concerns about his maturity and work ethic.

The Cowboys’ Dilemma:

Despite his impressive flashes of talent, Nolen’s track record may make him a hard sell for the Cowboys. The team recently signed Osa Odighizuwa to an $80 million contract, and they’ve historically been cautious about selecting interior defensive linemen early in the draft. Picking a player like Nolen at No. 12 overall might not align with the team’s current needs, but if his stock falls on Draft Day due to character concerns, Dallas could be tempted to take a chance on his immense potential.

Shemar Stewart: Athleticism Meets Inconsistent Production

Why He’s Risky:

Shemar Stewart is undeniably one of the most gifted athletes in this year’s draft class. He joins the ranks of Myles Garrett and Mario Williams as one of only three edge rushers in the last 25 years to achieve a sub-4.7 40-yard dash, a 40-inch vertical jump, and a 117-inch broad jump. His performance at the Senior Bowl only further solidified his potential as a top-five pick in any draft class.

The concern with Stewart isn’t his athleticism, but rather his on-field production. With only 4.5 career sacks and somewhat average pressure statistics, Stewart has yet to fully tap into his extraordinary physical gifts during games. His missed tackle rate of 23.5% in 2024 is another red flag that raises doubts about his consistency and ability to make an impact at the next level.

Will the Cowboys Take the Plunge?

Despite Stewart’s inconsistencies, the Cowboys might find themselves tempted by his raw potential. With defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and defensive line coach Aaron Whitecotton on staff, they could be convinced that they can unlock Stewart’s potential. His versatility as an edge rusher could be a valuable asset to the Cowboys’ defense, especially if he’s available later in the draft.

Addressing the Bigger Picture: Offensive Needs vs. Defensive Upside

The Cowboys have significant needs on offense, particularly at wide receiver and running back, but defensive upgrades—especially in the pass rush—remain a priority. Both Nolen and Stewart offer intriguing upside as high-risk, high-reward picks, but Dallas’ decision may ultimately come down to whether they can pass on their offensive needs to take a shot at these defensive playmakers.

As the NFL Draft approaches, the Cowboys are weighing the potential rewards of taking these risks against the risk of passing up more pressing offensive needs. One thing is certain—whether they choose to go for Nolen or Stewart, the Cowboys’ draft strategy could be a game-changer for their future.