Warriors Tiebreaking Scenarios Entering Final Week of Regular Season

With just over a week left in the 2024-25 regular season, the Golden State Warriors find themselves in one of the closest seeding races the Western Conference has ever seen.

While the Oklahoma City Thunder have had the first-seed clinched for weeks, and the Houston Rockets have a near unassailable hold on the two-seed, spots three through eight are all up for grabs with just 1.5 games incredible separating six teams.

The Warriors find themselves in the middle of it all, with three-straight wins over the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets holding them in the fifth-seed just one game below the three-seed, yet only half a game ahead of sixth, seventh and eighth.

With so little games separating the teams and so little time remaining in the season, it seems like a fait accompli that two or more teams will finish with the same record. Season tiebreaks will therefore become a huge factor, so let’s have a look at how Golden State are positioned among the five other teams.

How Tiebreakers Work in NBA Playoff Scenarios

If two teams conclude the regular season with the same record, the tiebreak will be determined by the head-to-head record in matchups between the two teams. If that does not split the teams, a divisional leader will take superiority over a team not leading a division.

Failing that, the division win-loss percentage will be used if both teams fall into the same division, and if not, the conference win-loss percentage will be used. Though very unlikely, there are other tiebreak scenarios that can be viewed here if none of the above separates the teams.

Which Teams do the Warriors Hold a Tiebreaker Advantage Over?

v Minnesota Timberwolves – 3-1 head-to-head

The Timberwolves are hot on the heels of the Warriors and are still fighting for home-court advantage themselves, yet will actually have to make sure they have a better record to finish above them.

In the event of both teams finishing with the same record, Golden State will finish above after winning three of the teams’ four matchups — all of which came between December 6 and January 15.

v Memphis Grizzlies – 3-1 head-to-head

The Warriors also hold the tiebreak advantage of the Grizzlies thanks to beating them in three of four matchups. Golden State did have arguably their worst loss of the season in a 51-point defeat at FedExForum in December, but responded on Tuesday with a crucial win that also gave them the season tiebreak.

Which Teams Hold a Tiebreaker Advantage over the Warriors?

v Los Angeles Lakers – 1-3 season head-to-head

The Warriors delivered a major statement with a 123-116 win over the Lakers at Crypto.com Arena on Thursday, but that didn’t change the tiebreak scenario after Los Angeles won the three earlier meetings. Golden State may come to regret their two-point Christmas Day loss at Chase Center where Austin Reaves made the game-winning layup in the final seconds.

v Denver Nuggets – 1-2 season head-to-head

A huge 118-104 win on Friday wasn’t just big for the Warriors from a standings perspective, but they also broke a nine-game losing-streak against the Nuggets. While Denver will retain the tiebreak, Golden State will draw a lot of confidence from that win in the event where the two teams meet in the postseason.

v L.A. Clippers – 0-3 head-to-head

If there’s one team the Warriors don’t want to see in the postseason, and in particular in a 7 vs. 8 Play-In Tournament game, it might be the L.A. Clippers. The Clippers have now won the last six games against Golden State, including three at the start of this season despite the absence of star forward Kawhi Leonard.

The two teams will meet in their regular season finale at Chase Center next Sunday in what could make all the difference in the final standings.