NBA fans curious how the Nikola Jokic versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP race will play out need look no further than the recent and equally contentious NFL MVP race between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. If recent history is any indication, the award is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s to lose.

What Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen MVP race teaches us

How do we know this? First and foremost, because the recent Jackson versus Allen nail biter ultimately reminded sports fans that the MVP — across all pro sports leagues — is the player most important to their team.

That is very different than the player with the best individual stats. Lamar Jackson had a clear advantage in the personal stats department. He threw for 4,172 yards, 41 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and had a 77.3 QBR. Josh Allen, meanwhile, threw for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and had a 77.3 QBR, yet he still claimed the MVP award.

The Ravens were a more complete team than the Bills when Jackson and Allen were removed from the equation, and MVP voters recognized that.

Second, the Jackson versus Allen race suggests an emerging trend of voters sharing the love where the MVP award is concerned. They want to see change from year to year, especially when the race is between a rising star and someone who has won it multiple times already.

The parallels here should be pretty obvious. Jokic already has three MVP awards. He also has a loaded Denver Nuggets team behind him who already has a championship under their belt.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are young and unproven, and if you removed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from the lineup, would almost certainly be a weaker team than the Nuggets without Jokic.

It doesn’t matter than Nikola Jokic is having one of the best statistical seasons in league history. He’s averaging 29.1 points per game, 12.8 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and a field goal percentage of 57.5. But he also has a stacked team behind him.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has led his up-and-coming squad to more wins and the top seed in the Western Conference, and his personal stats are still plenty impressive.

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 33.0 points per game, 5.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists and is shooting 52.6% on his field goals.

If recent historical trends mean anything, these figures are similar enough to tell us that the NBA MVP is Shai’s award to lose, just as the NFL MVP award was Josh Allen’s.

It’s not called the Most Impressive Stats award. It’s Most Valuable Player. And there’s no question Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most valuable to his team in the entire league.