A lot money got sunk into Kirk Cousins for a single, lonely playoff win.
After the wonderful 2017 season that came crashing down in the playoff loss to the Eagles, the Vikings lured Mr. Cousins over to Minnesota for the promise of a fully-guaranteed deal that spanned a trio of seasons. He would be paid handsomely, earning an eye-popping $84 million. The deal would get adjusted and extended a couple more times before his time with the Vikings finished off, but he could only secure a single postseason win.
Reset expectations and it would be fair to say that Kirk Cousins has been a tremendous success.
The No. 102 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft — a draft slot that arrived in the 4th — has far, far exceeded expectations for someone chosen within that range. The simple fact that he has been in the NFL for thirteen seasons is an incredible achievement. Go ahead and toss in that he has done so as (mostly) a starter and as someone who has been to the Pro Bowl four times.
Wildly successful according to initial expectations.
Come at the issue from another angle. The pre-draft scouting blurb on the NFL’s website isn’t the most flattering assessment of the passer.
Consider the word: “Cousins was a three-year starter, as well as a rare three-year captain, at Michigan State. He is a self-made guy, a tireless worker who has deficiencies that could hurt his pro potential. He is not a very strong deep thrower; while his velocity is adequate, his accuracy when throwing deep is questionable. Ultimately, Cousins is a guy who could get drafted based on his experience and intangibles, and will need to put on size and fine-tune certain throwing deficiencies to catch on at the next level. Based on the production and leadership at Michigan State, Cousins has late-round value to a team looking for someone to compete for a backup role.”
The final line is pretty revealing, isn’t it? Basically, the belief is that Cousins is a late-round passer who offers strong intangibles but who is unlikely to be a difference-maker in the NFL. In short, solid depth.
The quarterback would go on to become the starting quarterback for Washington, Minnesota, and Atlanta (if only for a short while). A normal season involves a tidy completion percentage — his career number sits at 66.9% — alongside soaring past 4,000 passing yards while flirting with 30 touchdowns. Not bad for a quarterback who is supposed to compete for a backup job, eh?
The great issue for Kirk Cousins is that expectations don’t stand still. By chasing large paydays, Cousins welcomed the new, higher expectations that accompany those contracts. So far, he hasn’t been able to live up to what those contracts demand: meaningful team success.
The Vikings have moved on and are on the cusp of fully handing things off to J.J. McCarthy (the skittishness about naming the sophomore as the QB1 is basically a meaningless, ineffective ruse, a factoid that has no impact on where McCarthy stands in the passer hierarchy).
In a lot of ways, McCarthy resembles his veteran predecessor. They have a similar build and both are quite accurate. A key difference rests in where the young arm got picked: No. 10 overall. A major part of the reason why he got snagged there is because McCarthy is a proven winner, leading his Wolverines to the National Championship. The Vikings believe that this past experience of winning it all can help to bring Minnesota where it has never gone before.
Expecting J.J. McCarthy to secure a Lombardi for Minnesota’s empty trophy case in 2025 would be unfair. No, not impossible, but a very lofty standard to apply to the 22-year-old quarterback. What about leading his team into the playoffs and maybe winning a game or two while there?
If he does so, McCarthy can either match of surpass the amount of playoff success Cousins had in his time leading the Vikings. In time, perhaps, McCarthy can even do something that no Vikings QB has ever done by finally leading Minnesota to the top of Mount Lombardi.
