The Cowboys are being counted out by several outlets.

The mood has definitely shifted this offseason among Dallas Cowboys fans. It has seemed like the team is legitimately trying, at least relative to recent history, which has our ears perked up. This is still a team that has disappointed us all for most of the last three decades, but they at least are acting ready to let Lucy line the ball up as opposed to just sitting on the sidelines.

While Cowboys fans might be feeling better about the state of things, the prognosticators around the league still seem to be doubting them. Last week was the schedule release and since then win total projections have been launched from all sorts of sportsbooks.

NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund approaches this exercise through her own data collection and it is always interesting to see what it yields. She recently offered win total projections for every team and her model has the Cowboys among the lowest in the NFC.

Win Total: under 7.5 (+110)

Make Playoffs: +190

Win Division: +700

Win Conference: +2800

Win Super Bowl: +5500

Here’s the Cowboys’ toughest three-game stretch: In Week 12, they host the Eagles, welcome the Chiefs on Thanksgiving Day in Week 13 and then head to Detroit for a Thursday Night Football clash in Week 14. It’s important to remember that if Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons, who each missed time in 2024, are available all season, Dallas’ ceiling increases, especially if rookie right guard Tyler Booker is able to get acclimated. The first-round pick had the highest floor and was my highest-rated lineman at his position in this year’s draft.

You can make an argument that the toughest three-game stretch that Dallas plays on an annual basis is the one that Frelund offered: Sunday before Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving to Thursday after Thanksgiving. The Cowboys don’t run this gauntlet every year, but it has happened quite often in recent history.

On some level doesn’t that make it sort of nice that three of the team’s toughest opponents are taking place then? If the games are going to be difficult anyway, they might as well be really difficult, no? Obviously there are different ways to think about this.

For what it’s worth, the Sunday before Thanksgiving does not involve any sort of short rest the way that the Thanksgiving and Thursday after do. If the Cowboys are able to beat the Eagles in the first of these three games then on one hand they will already be coming out ahead of the run.

As far as overall win totals though you can see that Frelund listed the odds for under 7.5. It is worth noting that she has the Cowboys at 7.2 projected wins with the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and New Orleans Saints as the only teams with fewer.

This seems a bit harsh and like it is discounting the return of so many players who Dallas lost to injury last year. It isn’t a homer take to say that the Cowboys should have more wins than groups like the Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals and/or Seattle Seahawks who are directly in front of them on this list.

Clearly that is why they play the games, though. Dallas happens to play three games against teams who Frelund projected to finish worse off than them so it would stand to reason that this would at least help.