Sam Darnold’s Surprising Rise and Fall: What’s Next for the Quarterback?

As the 2025 NFL Playoffs approached, many were eager to see how Sam Darnold would perform after an unexpected turn in his career. Once pegged as a potential “bridge” quarterback for the up-and-coming rookie JJ McCarthy from Michigan, Darnold’s fate seemed all but sealed. However, when McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury during training camp, the former USC standout was thrust into action—and what followed was the best season of his career.

A Stellar Season Under Pressure

Darnold, having previously struggled with consistency in the NFL, stunned many by completing 361 out of 545 passes, tallying 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. He demonstrated poise under pressure, skillfully navigating nearly every defense thrown his way. His leadership played a pivotal role in guiding his team to a remarkable 14-3 record, the Minnesota Vikings’ best performance since 1998.

But, as the saying goes, what goes up must come down.

The Late-Season Collapse

The optimism surrounding Darnold quickly began to unravel as the season came to an end. In his final two games, Darnold appeared to regress, completing only 43 of 81 passes for 411 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He was sacked an alarming 11 times and led the team to a meager nine points in each game. The questions surrounding his future grew louder as the Vikings’ playoff hopes were shaken.

What’s at Stake for Darnold’s Contract?

As Darnold faces the end of his contract with the Vikings, his future remains uncertain. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reached out to sources within the league to gauge how this late-season downturn might impact his contract negotiations. The answers, it seems, are far from definitive.

Some sources have suggested that the Vikings are still weighing their options, and Darnold’s impressive season makes it more likely he’ll return to the team than it did six months ago. However, with the team’s cap space limitations, they may be forced to make difficult decisions. Some agents have even argued that Darnold deserves a contract comparable to Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million deal, awarded by the New York Giants two years ago.

Others have pointed to a contract in line with Baker Mayfield’s—three years and $100 million—as more realistic. In the end, the franchise tag, valued at $35.3 million, could be the most sensible option, at least in the short term.

Darnold’s Potential Pay Range: What Does the Future Hold?

Looking ahead, Darnold could see himself landing a deal anywhere in the $30-40 million per season range. While comparisons to Jones’ deal may not serve him well, especially given the disastrous nature of Jones’ contract for the Giants, Mayfield’s situation offers some interesting insights. His contract was handed out by the same team that had him under contract, rather than as a free agent.

So, what does this mean for Darnold’s future? Will a team take a chance on him and elevate him to a top-15 paid player in the NFL? Or will he have to settle for another one-year deal, either with the Vikings or another team looking to avoid being tied to a potentially risky investment?

A Fascinating Free Agency Battle

While Darnold may not be the hottest name in free agency, his contract negotiations are sure to captivate NFL fans. His unique journey and potential for future success mean that whichever direction he takes, his impact on the league could be far-reaching. As teams weigh their options in the coming months, Darnold’s story will be one to watch closely.