There’s no sugar-coating this one: the Houston Texans were embarrassed by the Baltimore Ravens last week in a 31-2 loss on Christmas Day. It was their lowest point total since early in the 2021 season. But it’s also a symptom of a Texans team that has taken a surprising step back in 2024 after a wildly exciting 2023 campaign. Bill Belichick believes they’ve got a lot to fix as they head into the postseason.

While discussing the finer points of NFL football with former colleagues Matt Patricia and Michael Lombardi on their podcast, The Coach Show, Belichick explained why the Texans will struggle in the postseason. He basically called them a paper tiger that took advantage of a weak AFC South division to boost their record.

“The six games this year against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee just doesn’t get you hardened for playoff competition. Like the AFC West with Denver, Chargers, and Kansas City. Or Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati. Those teams have played a much tougher schedule and I think in the long run, playing better teams helps your team play better.”

As someone who dominated a relatively weak AFC East division for two decades, the comment was a bit short-sighted coming from Belichick. But, in this case, it seems to be completely accurate. The Texans are 4-1 against their AFC South brethren and 5-6 against the rest of the league this year. However, it wasn’t just Houston’s competition that worried him.

Bill Belichick also discussed the actual problems the Texans have been having this season on the gridiron. Surely he didn’t mean to pour on here, but there are a few crucial issues with Houston’s operation, according to the newly minted head coach of the University of North Carolina Tar Heels football team.

“This happened to Houston last year in the Baltimore game. They couldn’t run the ball, they had trouble with blitz pickup, pass rush, it’s really continued to be a problem all year. Even though they’re gonna win their division, a lot of the problems that they had that cost them the Baltimore game last year, I’m not sure that they’ve really been rectified.”

There’s a reason Belichick is viewed as the greatest NFL coach to ever throw on a cutoff hoodie. Over the past eight weeks, the Texans have averaged the 4th-fewest rush yards per game (93.9); they’ve allowed the 3rd-most sacks (30), and they’ve recorded the 15th-fewest sacks of their own (20).

Belichick wasn’t alone in his evaluation of the Texans. Michael Lombardi, who worked as an exec in the NFL for the better part of 30 years from 1984 to 2016 and is now Belichick’s general manager at Chapel Hill, flat out said that after looking at the current AFC playoff bracket, he’d “rather play Houston”.

“I don’t wanna be the three and have to go against a good Chargers or good Broncos team. I think I wouldn’t mind going into Houston and playing them as the 5th seed. I know you don’t get a home game if you’re the 5th seed, but look, you gotta travel once you’re not the No. 1 seed. You’re travelling, you know that. But I just think Houston right now isn’t playing to the level that the Chargers are playing, the Broncos are playing, or what Baltimore’s doing.”

While the Texans are limping into the postseason with a 3-5 record and riddled with injuries, the Chargers have won seven of their last 10, and the Broncos are 4-3 in their last seven, though they’ve dropped a couple of tough ones late.

As it currently stands, the Texans will be welcoming the No. 5 seed Pittsburgh Steelers for a Wild Card matchup. If the Steelers win on Saturday, that’s how it will remain. But if they lose and the Chargers win, it will be Justin Herbert and company heading to H-Town. Either way, the ice-cold Texans will have their work cut out for them.