The Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) have clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed after their 29-10 road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day in Week 17.
The win on Wednesday means that the AFC playoffs will go through GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. The Chiefs are seeking their third consecutive title in Super Bowl LIX. Locking up the No. 1 seed means that they won’t play their first playoff game until January 18 at the earliest in the NFL’s divisional round.
Kansas City can now rest players for 23 consecutive days if they choose to, which raises an entirely new concern for the reigning Super Bowl champions. How much rest is too much? Is there even such a thing? This is an oft-debated topic in NFL circles.
Chiefs No. 1 seed clinch means that the rest vs. rust argument will come into play
The Chiefs have played 11 consecutive games since their Week 6 bye week. They’re desperate for a break to allow guys some rest and recovery, especially after this late-season sprint where they played three games in the span of 11 days. The big concern with securing the No. 1 seed is just how much rest the team has ahead of themselves with the first-round bye week.
Week 18’s game against the Denver Broncos is now meaningless in terms of the standings and seeding. K.C. can realistically rest its starters for that game. By all means, they should rest starters in order to keep them healthy and out of harm’s way for the playoffs.
Teams coming off a first-round bye in the playoffs have a 55-25 record (68.75%) dating back to 2002. Extended rest, however, is the big question here. Guys resting in Week 18 and again the following week could lead to the rust argument, especially if the results don’t go their way in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Generally speaking, Andy Reid’s team has experience with those extended rest scenarios. Kansas City has clinched the AFC’s top seed in 2018, 2020, and 2022. In 2020, Mahomes and many starters rested in the final week of the season. They’ve also rested starters in the final week of the season as recently as last year when the team finished as the AFC’s No. 3 seed. There’s also something to be said about Reid’s record with extra time to prepare. His teams have a 22-4 record following their regular-season bye week, which is the best in NFL history (.846 win percentage).
