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Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
The Minnesota Vikings will retain the upper hand when it comes to Sam Darnold until the free agency negotiating period opens on March 10, but the QB will know his market well before then.

Predictions of that market continuously fall around $40 million annually, which is a significant discount from where it might have been if Darnold didn’t tank the last two games of the campaign.

“I agree with [Benjamin] Solak that Darnold’s value should come in around $40 million per season, with Daniel Jones‘ deal with the Giants in 2023 as a potential comp for a quarterback with one year of success,” Bill Barnwell of ESPN wrote January 30.

As far as predictions for where Darnold will get his money, neither Barnwell or Solak is sold on Minnesota ponying up — and that is because of one specific reason.

“Will that [contract] come from the Vikings?” Barnwell continued. “They can afford to retain him, but that seems less likely with 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returning from the knee injury he suffered in August.”

The Las Vegas Raiders, who pick No. 6 in April’s NFL draft, is the team insiders mention most frequently when predicting who will foot the bill for Darnold.

“Darnold would also mesh with the blueprint of new head coach Pete Carroll, assuming he looks to replicate his Seattle Seahawks formula. The 2018 No. 3 pick has the physical tools to be a high-end game manager and an occasional playmaker, one who can complement a strong running game and defense,” Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report wrote. “Darnold is also much younger than [Russell] Wilson (36) and performed better in 2024. He’s a stronger long-term option, and the Raiders can’t bank on drafting their QB of the future this year or next.”

GettyQuarterback Sam Darnold of the Minnesota Vikings.
Darnold is potentially the key to the entire quarterback market this offseason, along with what the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns decide to do with the Nos. 1 and 2 picks in the draft, respectively.

Only Shedeur Sanders of Colorado and Cam Ward of Miami have first-round grades, and some personnel people around the league have questioned whether either player is a true franchise quarterback. The less interest QB-needy teams have in Sanders and/or Ward at the top of the draft, the more likely they drive Darnold’s price up via a bidding war.

As Solak pointed out, the best chance for Darnold to return to Minnesota is for him to decide that he wants to take less to stay in a place where he is comfortable with a head coach who maximized his talent and a roster full of playmakers.

“If Darnold’s market indeed comes in near $40 million per year, the Vikings will likely get priced out as they address other positions,” Solak wrote. “But if Darnold wants to stay in the [Kevin] O’Connell offense and Minnesota can get him at a lower figure, don’t be surprised to see it happen.”

GettyMinnesota Vikings quarterback Daniel Jones.