Sam Darnold’s looming franchise tag fate creates instant winners and losers across NFL landscape with deep draft ramifications – HTX

NASHVILLE — The 2025 NFL offseason is ramping up once again with the player acquisition period beginning for teams on Tuesday.

From now until March 4th, the franchise tag window is open. Teams can place the franchise tag on any impending free agent and bring them back on a one-year contract. It’s a tool often used to help teams keep their best players from leaving in free agency and/or get significant draft capital in return if a player were to sign elsewhere.

This offseason, all eyes are on the Minnesota Vikings and QB Sam Darnold.

Darnold’s breakout season

Darnold signed a one-year deal with the Vikings in 2024 and proceeded to exceed all expectations and revive his NFL career. The former first round pick threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. That was good for Top 5 across the league in both categories. Darnold went 14-3 as the Vikings starter and was selected to the Pro Bowl.

It creates quite the dilemma for head coach Kevin O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. J.J. MCCarthy was the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and is, by all accounts, the quarterback in waiting. But how can you let a Pro Bowl QB simply walk away after your first 14-win season in over 25 years (1998)?

It’s no wonder everyone is keeping an eye on the Vikings. What they do with Sam Darnold will greatly impact the offseason’s QB carousel and the QB-needy teams, almost all of which will be rooting against a franchise tag. The Tennessee Titans, however, would helped tremendously if Minnesota ends up tagging Darnold.

Titans helped by the franchise tag

On one hand, the Titans are one of the teams that could target Darnold in free agency. If Mike Borgonzi decides to trade out of the No. 1 overall pick to gain future assets, Darnold could be someone they pivot to. But I have long believed that nobody will outbid the Las Vegas Raiders for Darnold’s services in March.

According to overthecap.com, the Raiders will go into free agency with more than double the salary cap space of any other team in the market for a quarterback. Teams like the New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets could use Darnold, but can’t afford Darnold.

The Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants will probably be no match for the financial might of Vegas.

2025 Effective Salary Cap Space – via OverTheCap.com

Las Vegas Raiders: $92.7 million

Tennessee Titans: $42.7 million

New York Giants: $38.7 million

Indianapolis Colts: $31.3 million

New York Jets: $18.1 million

Cleveland Browns: -$32.7 million

New Orleans Saints: -$52.5 million

The Raiders are the perfect fit. A team with the cap space to pay Darnold and a draft pick (No. 6) not high enough to select Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward. But if the Vikings were to use the franchise tag on Darnold and bring him back on a one-year deal, the Raiders may be forced to get aggressive and trade up for a QB.

All it does is give the Titans more leverage during draft trade negotiations. Whether the Raiders themselves want to come up for the number one pick, or the Raiders are used as a competitor to incentivize the Giants to give up more than they should.

There’s no telling which way the Titans are leaning right now. We know that Borgonzi wants to trade back as often as possible, but a new GM is also not going to pass up an opportunity at drafting a franchise quarterback. It will all come down to Tennessee’s evaluation of Sanders and Ward.

Either way, I think Titans fans should be rooting for Darnold to get franchise tagged. It makes that number one overall pick more valuable, which will only help Tennessee.

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