It appeared to be as clear as day earlier this season.Aidan Hutchinson, the Detroit Lions’ edge rusher, was expected to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. There was no question about it. He accumulated so many pressures that he led the league for weeks following his Week 6 injury.

Unfortunately, the broken leg derailed what could have been a historic season and made Hutchinson the highest-paid edge rusher in the NFL. This is something that could still happen.

This offseason, the Lions are expected to either exercise Hutchinson’s fifth-year option or work out a contract extension. I collaborated with cap expert Joshua Queipo to create a projection of the potential extension. Here’s what we came up with.

A four-year contract worth $110 million, with $82.5 million guaranteed and 60.5 fully guaranteed. Annual revenue averages $27.5 million.

That is a lot of lettuce, no doubt, but it isn’t all he could get. This projection ranks him fifth in average per year, sixth in total value, and fifth in fully guaranteed money.

That is a very solid offer, and if I were Aidan Hutchinson, I would politely decline and take the fifth-year option. Here’s why.

The injury will undoubtedly have an impact. We all want to pretend it isn’t, but it is. Even though we know the Lions have been trendsetters in terms of ensuring their players are paid above market value, he is unlikely to receive what he deserves. Fifth in APY is satisfactory, but it could and should be first. But the Lions must take care of themselves in case things go wrong.

Even if the Lions took care of him right now and made him the highest-paid edge rusher in the NFL, offering him $35 million per year, surpassing Nick Bosa’s current leading salary of $34 million per year, Hutchinson would most likely only be the highest-paid edge rusher for a few months. Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons would probably increase that amount to make more.

While the Lions would benefit from the deal, Hutchinson would leave a significant amount on the table. It’s in his best interest to exercise the fifth-year option, which offers a fully guaranteed $22,612,000 salary.

If he comes back and plays like he did to start the 2024 season and wins the Defensive Player of the Year award, we’ll be talking about market setting with him.

Now we’re after Parsons and Garrett’s deals, which should be in the high 30 million per year range.

Hutchinson could earn more than $40 million per year, making him the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback. We’re talking set-for-life money, and he earned it. It would also almost certainly allow the Lions to lock him down for the rest of his career.

The choice is either a very good sum of money with the possibility that the Lions will take care of you and make you the highest-paid player for a short time, or setting the market and becoming the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL.If I’m Hutchinson, I’ll bet on myself and choose the latter.

If we know Hutchinson as well as we do, he will continue to be one of the best edge rushers in the NFL once he returns. He’s much more likely to come back even better. It’s also likely that he’d stay in Detroit regardless. It’s an ideal situation for him. It is literally home.