Josh Allen is putting together an MVP-caliber campaign that’s hard to ignore. With the Buffalo Bills boasting an 11-3 record and keeping their sights set firmly on the AFC’s coveted number one seed, it’s clear that Allen’s in peak form. Their impressive wins against top-seeded teams like Kansas City and Detroit underscore just how formidable the Bills have been this season. But even with all the hype and excitement, I’m not convinced they’re destined to lift the Lombardi Trophy this year.

Allen’s performance this year can be summed up in two words: controlled intensity. He’s tossed just five interceptions, a career-low, and is throwing less often than he has over the previous five seasons. This strategic pivot has seen the Bills lean more on their ground game, with James Cook and Ray Davis taking on more significant roles. And let’s not forget Allen’s own contribution on the run—11 rushing touchdowns attest to that. However, should the Bills come up against a defense adept at stifling the run, forcing Allen to pass more, the narrative could shift. After all, history shows a tendency for turnovers when he’s pressed. Just last season, Allen threw 18 interceptions, showing how quickly things can unravel if their ground game is neutralized.

Turning to the division, one can’t help but notice the disparity. The Bills have benefited from a rather weak AFC East, where the combined record of their rivals sits at a dismal 13-29. It’s reminiscent of Tom Brady’s Patriots, who consistently dominated a division lacking in fierce competition. The Bills stand at 3-0 in their division with two games against the Patriots and one against the Jets on the horizon. A perfect 6-0 division record seems within reach, keeping them in the mix for the number one seed well into the postseason.

But it’s not all sunshine and victories. The Buffalo defense poses a significant hurdle. Ranked 25th in opponent pass yards per game, with similar rankings in sack percentage and opponent completion percentage, the Bills’ defense presents vulnerabilities. Teams like the Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Burrow or even Houston, equipped with potent aerial assaults, could exploit these weaknesses. Against these pass-heavy teams, Buffalo might find themselves struggling to keep pace.

In what seems like a never-ending quest for their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994, Buffalo nears the brink but can’t quite breach it. Allen, despite his brilliance, has moments where turnovers creep back into play—a tough pill for a team striving for championship glory. The defense’s challenges against the pass add more skepticism to their Super Bowl ambitions. Taken together, it feels like the pieces just aren’t in place for Buffalo to take the final step this season.