Josh Jacobs: A Key Addition to the Green Bay Packers’ Backfield

Josh Jacobs’ first season with the Green Bay Packers was nothing short of spectacular. With 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns, Jacobs’ impact on the field was evident. His performance helped propel him to a well-deserved Pro Bowl selection. However, despite his clear statistical achievements, some analysts, including ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, have questioned his overall efficiency when compared to the likes of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. By taking a closer look at Jacobs’ performance and considering the Packers’ offensive line struggles, we can gain a more nuanced understanding of his contribution.

Breaking Down the Numbers: Efficiency vs. Volume

Barnwell used EPA (Expected Points Added) to argue that Jacobs was less efficient than other top running backs, including Barkley and Henry. However, it’s important to recognize that EPA is a collective metric, measuring how much each play adds to the team’s expected points. While this metric can be insightful, it doesn’t always account for the broader context, such as the running back’s individual contribution or the team’s situation. For example, the Packers’ offensive line ranked 23rd in run-block win rate, which created a challenging environment for Jacobs. In comparison, the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles, who ranked 3rd and 9th, respectively, created much more favorable conditions for their running backs, including Henry and Barkley.

While it’s true that the Packers’ other running backs, Chris Brooks and Emanuel Wilson, posted higher EPA per rush and success rates, Jacobs had significantly more volume. In fact, Jacobs had three times more carries than Wilson and ten times more than Brooks. Volume can often negatively affect efficiency, as opposing defenses are likely to prepare more thoroughly for a player like Jacobs, making it more challenging to gain ground.

An Individual Evaluation: Jacobs’ Elite Performance

When we shift to individual metrics, Jacobs’ season looks even more impressive. He ranked 5th in PFF’s rush grade, just behind the likes of Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Additionally, Jacobs was 8th in yards after contact per attempt (3.45), ahead of notable players like Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones. His ability to break tackles was also exceptional; Jacobs forced 67 missed tackles, ranking 4th in the league. For comparison, Barkley had 44 more rushing attempts and forced five fewer missed tackles.

Jacobs also excelled in PFF’s elusive rating, which measures a running back’s success independent of the blocking in front of them. With an elusive rating of 90.1, Jacobs ranked 8th, outperforming not only Barkley but also Derrick Henry and Gibbs. His ability to create yards on his own, despite the limitations of his offensive line, is a testament to his skill and determination.

The Receiving Threat: Jacobs’ Versatility

Before the season, there were concerns about whether Jacobs could replicate Aaron Jones’ success as a receiver. Jacobs put those concerns to rest by ranking 3rd in PFF’s receiving grade among running backs and 11th in yards per route run (1.36), ahead of both Henry and Barkley. This added dimension to his game made him an even more valuable asset to the Packers, especially in the passing game, where he could contribute in ways that many running backs cannot.

Where Jacobs Fell Short: The Explosive Play Question

While Jacobs’ season was undoubtedly impressive, his lack of explosive plays stood out. Explosive plays, defined as runs of 15 yards or more, are often a hallmark of elite running backs. In this category, Jacobs ranked 32nd with a breakaway rate of 21.2%. In comparison, Henry, Barkley, and Gibbs were all in the top 5, with breakaway rates of over 40%. While Jacobs’ breakaway rate may not be as high as some of the league’s top backs, his consistency and efficiency on a play-by-play basis were more than enough to make up for this shortcoming.

The Packers’ Decision to Sign Jacobs: A Strategic Move

Before free agency, many analysts, including myself, believed the Packers should pursue Saquon Barkley, pairing him with Aaron Jones for a dynamic backfield duo. However, Green Bay opted for a different route, signing Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million contract, releasing Jones in the process. At first glance, Jacobs’ deal might seem less favorable than Barkley’s, considering Barkley’s $13 million per season with the Eagles compared to Jacobs’ $12 million with the Packers. However, Jacobs’ contract is far more team-friendly, with only the first season guaranteed. This flexibility gives the Packers a much more manageable cap situation in the long term.

Moreover, Jacobs is the youngest of the three backs, at 26 years old, compared to Barkley (27) and Henry (30 when the decision was made). The Packers wanted a player with a proven track record of durability who could handle a heavy workload, and Jacobs fit the bill. His reliability, coupled with the Packers’ need for a stable and consistent running back, made him an ideal choice, even if his explosive playmaking was not on the same level as Barkley’s or Henry’s.

The Bottom Line: A Major Impact in 2024

In conclusion, while Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry had remarkable seasons in 2024, Josh Jacobs’ performance for the Packers cannot be overlooked. His individual statistics, versatility as both a rusher and receiver, and overall efficiency make him an integral part of the Packers’ offense. With a combination of volume, durability, and skill, Jacobs proved his worth to Green Bay, and his impact on the team was undeniable in 2024. The Packers made the right decision in bringing him aboard, and Jacobs’ future with the team looks promising.