The Chicago Bulls will reach the NBA’s Play-In Tournament for a third straight season. While it’s not an absolute, it’s a foregone conclusion. The Bulls are currently seven games ahead of the 11th-seeded Toronto Raptors and a game ahead of the 10th-place Miami Heat.

The Bulls’ most likely outcomes are ninth- and 10th-place finishes. According to PlayoffStatus, Chicago has a 53 percent chance of landing in ninth and a 26 percent chance of finishing in 10th. However, the eighth seed, which the Orlando Magic currently hold, remains within reach. PlayoffStatus gives the Bulls a 19 percent chance of usurping the Magic for eighth.

The Chicago Bulls’ Magic Number is 3

To gain a better understanding of what must be accomplished over the following 18 days, the “Magic Number” or the number of games a team must win to guarantee winning a given playoff spot, is used to simplify the Bulls’ postseason objective.

Chicago’s magic number to clinch the 10th seed is three. Thus, over the final 10 games, the Bulls must only win three to guarantee a playoff spot. This scenario is seemingly surefire, as the Billy Donovan-led squad has won eight of its past 10 contests. The Bulls’ hot streak paired with a relatively easy remaining strength of schedule (10th easiest), points to a lower seed as the likeliest outcome.

The Bulls’ magic number is nine to secure the ninth seed. While winning nine of 10 games to end the season is unlikely, the number of wins solely guarantees the spot. The Bulls could win one more game and still wind up as the ninth seed if the 10th-place Heat lose every remaining contest.

Looking beyond the Bulls, the Heat do not control their own destiny considering the ninth seed. However, they do have a magic number to secure the 10th seed—four. Upon taking a peek at Miami’s upcoming schedule, no valid reason exists why the Heat cannot win four contests. Miami has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NBA with looming contests against the Philadelphia 76ers (twice), the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Washington Wizards.

The Play-In standings are sure to shift

Perhaps the more intriguing seeding battle is between the Atlanta Hawks and Magic. The seventh-place Hawks are merely half a game ahead of the Magic. Orlando is 6-4 in its last 10 games and winners of three straight. Nonetheless, both squads’ magic numbers to secure the seventh seed is nine, and their magic number to finish eighth is eight.

Similar to Chicago and Miami, Atlanta and Orlando have easy remaining schedules. The Hawks have the 5th easiest, while the Magic own the 14th easiest. As far as seeding probability goes, the Hawks are 57 percent likely to finish in seventh and 34 percent likely to land in eighth. The Magic’s odds are 39 and 41 percent, respectively.

Instead of watching the lottery odds, the Bulls have shifted focus toward the Play-In Tournament, and recent returns suggest Chicago could do some damage in both the mini-tournament and the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Bulls’ 79 percent chance to finish as ninth or 10th ultimately sets the squad up with a matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Boston Celtics in the first round—two of the better one-two seeds in recent seasons. That is if the Bulls can win two Play-In Tournament games.

Looking ahead, nine victories are of course, doable, but unlikely. Among the Bulls’ final 10 games, seven come against teams with losing records. The three teams with records better than .500 are the Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers.