The Green Bay Packers are 0-4 against the NFC’s fellow heavyweights, including a loss to the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field in September.
Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Vikings in the rematch and prove once and for all they are legitimate contenders to reach the Super Bowl.
Run Defense vs. Aaron Jones
In Aaron Jones’ debut against his former team in Week 4, the Packers kept him out of the end zone but that’s about it. Jones rushed for 93 yards and added 46 receiving yards in the Vikings’ 31-29 victory.
Jones is 10th in the NFL with 1,046 rushing yards. On Sunday, he could break his career-high total of 1,121 set in 2022.
“Aaron’s been obviously huge, not just for me, but for our entire team,” Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold told reporters this week. “To be able to run the way that he’s running, the aggression that he has when he runs, that kind of style where he can run through you (but) he can also run by you and juke you.
“So, there’s a lot of things that you’ve got to come prepared with as a defender when you’re going against a back like Aaron, and it makes my job that much easier.”
However, by some measuring sticks, the 30-year-old isn’t quite the same back that he was with the Packers. His 4.5 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per touch are the worst of his career.
Of 40 running backs with at least 100 carries, he is 25th with a missed-tackle rate of 12.9 percent and 21st with 2.8 yards after contact per carry, according to Sports Info Solutions. In 2022, his missed-tackle rate was 22.1 percent and he averaged 3.2 yards after contact.
Jones, however, remains a formidable runner, and there’s no doubt he’ll have plenty of motivation in facing the Packers again.
“Go out there and have fun and remind them who I am,” Jones told reporters this week.
Throughout his tenure in Green Bay, the Packers’ run defenses were among the worst in the NFL. This year, the Packers’ run defense is one of the best.
Green Bay enters the game ranked fifth with 4.11 yards allowed per carry and eighth with 102.5 rushing yards allowed per game.
The last five games, the Packers allowed 3.5-plus yards per carry only once. The only team to top 80 rushing yards was Detroit a few weeks ago, with the Lions needing 34 carries to reach 111 rushing yards (3.3 average).
Stopping Jones will be critical in keeping the Vikings in third-and-long situations and limiting Darnold’s play-action opportunities, where he ranks second in the NFL with a 136.4 passer rating.
Sacking Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold is having an MVP-caliber season.
Darnold has 11 games with a 100-plus passer rating and two touchdowns. Only four players in NFL history had at least 12 such games in a season, led by Aaron Rodgers’ record 14 in 2020. Rodgers in 2020 and 2011 (13 games), Patrick Mahomes (13 in 2018) and Matt Ryan (12 in 2016) all won NFL MVP.
So, Darnold is having a great year. Justin Jefferson is a great receiver. Jordan Addison is a high-quality receiver. T.J. Hockenson is an above-average tight end. Aaron Jones is, well, Aaron Jones.
The Achilles heel can be the pass protection.
The Vikings rank 28th in sack percentage allowed at 9.91 percent. That’s not just a bloated, early-season figure. They’ve allowed 17 sacks the last five games. The Packers, by contrast, have allowed 16 sacks all season.
Green Bay’s pass rush, which was supposed to be the strength of the defense, had only two sacks against Minnesota in Week 4 but has finally gotten rolling.
The last four games include five sacks against Miami, seven sacks against Seattle and three sacks against New Orleans.
While the Packers don’t have a statistical stud – Rashan Gary has a team-high 6.5 sacks – they rank sixth with 43 sacks and seventh with a sack rate of 8.74 percent. Seven players have at least three sacks and 11 have at least two.
Does defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley think he finally has a pass rush?
“I do,” he said. “And it has to be. I think that we’ve created depth because we’re playing a lot of guys, and I think towards the end of the game when teams have had to throw the ball we’re fresh and we look fast out there. And I think they’re getting better and, if we’re going to make a run at this thing, we’re going to have to be.”
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is impressed by the defense’s growth.
“I think Jeff Hafley’s done a lot of really good things with their defense,” he said. “They’re very, very talented, physical, fast, they fly around. The brain power of their defensive staff shows up on the tape of how they play, how they disguise, why they’re doing certain things that they do.”
Jordan Love vs. the Blitz
We will go much more in depth in a “Big Matchup” series that will publish on Sunday. However, Jordan Love’s work against the blitz since the bye shows he’s ready for everything that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is going to throw at him.
According to Pro Football Focus, Love was second-to-last in passer rating against the blitz before the bye. After the bye, with Love having moved past those early-season injuries, he’s No. 1 in passer rating against the blitz.
It’s not just the blitz.
During the first 10 weeks, 35 quarterbacks had at least 50 under-pressure dropbacks. According to PFF, Love ranked 32nd in completion percentage (41.8) and 31st in passer rating (51.4). Only two quarterbacks had more interceptions than Love’s five.
Beginning in Week 11, 33 quarterbacks have had at least 35 under-pressure dropbacks. Love is fourth in completion percentage (57.1) and third in passer rating (107.2). With four touchdowns vs. zero interceptions, only Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa has more touchdowns with zero interceptions.
The running of Josh Jacobs and the physicality and protection provided by the offensive line “all kind of pairs together with Jordan running the show,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said on Friday.
Love is “able to truly see the whole field and attack it with his arm, and they do a great job scheming up things in the foundation of their offense,” O’Connell continued. “So, I just think they’ve improved. They’ve continued to kind of get healthy and get their core group back in there and build upon one win leading into another. They’re playing as well as anybody in our league over the last five, six weeks or so. It’s been impressive.”
Flores is going to blitz a lot. Sometimes, those blitzes are going to win. Sometimes, the Vikings’ talented rushers are going to win. Love’s ability to win the down, anyway, will be vital.
