It wasn’t easy, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) are back over .500 thanks to its Week 14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11).

It’s the Bucs’ third win in a row, which is enough reason to smile, regardless of how the wins came. And, to make things even better, Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons (6-7) fell to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, propelling the Bucs into first place in the NFC South and back into the playoff race.

The Bucs currently control their own destiny and are back on track when it comes to winning their fourth-straight division title. They currently own the NFC’s No. 4 seed.

Per NFL.com, the Bucs had a 57% chance of making the postseason dance before kickoff. Now, it’s up to 66% after the win. It would’ve dropped to 34% with a loss. The Athletic had their chances of making the playoffs at 54% and ESPN had it at 56% – those are now 67% and 73%, respectively. The Athletic also had Tampa’s chances of winning the NFCS at 41%, while ESPN had it at 49%.

The Athletic now has the Bucs’ chances of winning the division at 57%, while ESPN has them at 70%.

It’s obviously akin to last year, when the Bucs fell to 4-6 and ended up finishing the year 5-2. Their 9-8 record was good enough to win the division, but the fact they were swept by the Falcons, this year, is what makes today’s outcome so big for their playoff odds. The Bucs have to stay above the line when it comes to comparing records with the Falcons, because the sweep automatically gives Atlanta the edge in a tiebreaker. Unless the Falcons just completely cave, a 9-8 record probably won’t be enough to get it done in 2024.

We’ll certainly see how things play out and we’ll get a really good idea when the Buccaneers travel to L.A. to take on the Chargers next week.