The ideal scenarios for Sam Darnold are either to hit the free agent market in March or to sign an extension with the Minnesota Vikings before then somewhere in the upward reaches of his $40 million annual market value projection.

Unfortunately for Darnold, neither of those outcomes are necessarily the most likely.

Ben Solak of ESPN predicted in late January that Minnesota will balk at inking Darnold to the kind of deal he can likely command on the open market.

“If Darnold’s market indeed comes in near $40 million per year, the Vikings will likely get priced out as they address other positions,” Solak wrote.

But that doesn’t mean Minnesota is going to let Darnold walk for nothing.

“Smart teams don’t let quarterbacks who just performed well over a 14-win season leave the building easily,” Solak continued.

So what’s the move? Unfortunately for Darnold, it well could be a tag-and-trade. In that scenario, the Vikings keep him under contract for 2025 by applying the franchise tag (worth upwards of $40 million for a single season with no money or years guaranteed beyond that) and then hunt a trade so as to procure value back for him in return.

Vikings’ Franchise Tag Could Cost Sam Darnold More Than $100 Million

Bleacher Report’s NFL Scouting Department on Monday dubbed Darnold arguably the “most interesting trade piece” in the entire league, which is call for Minnesota stifling his free agency via the franchise tag in the interest of maximizing his return, then moving on with J.J. McCarthy under center.

“Darnold may not love it, but the Vikings have the cap space to easily use the franchise tag on the quarterback,” B/R wrote. “That could be a one-year band-aid to the current situation brewing with Darnold and McCarthy on the roster. The tag could also be a way to guarantee a better haul than anything the Vikings would get from the compensatory formula.”

B/R brings up an alternative tag scenario in which the team simply keeps Darnold for one more season and lets him battle it out with McCarthy. If he wins the job and has a good season, that would probably mean a contract extension next offseason, which might be even higher than it would be this year in terms of annual dollars due to the seemingly ever-rising salary cap situation in the NFL.

However, he could lose the job and much of his value in that scenario as well, which could end up costing Darnold $100 million or more in the long run.

Free Agency This Offseason Is Perfect Scenario for Sam Darnold

If Darnold can find his way to free agency this offseason, it will likely prove the most advantageous timing for which he could ever hope.

The 2025 draft class has just two quarterbacks with first-round grades. The free agency class is equally thin, and Darnold universally ranks as the top veteran QB prospect potentially on the market.

Meanwhile, there are at least five or six teams that will be looking for an answer under center, and Darnold is coming off of a career year, in which he threw for 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns. More than that, he is only 27 years old and should remain both reasonably healthy and in his prime for the entirety of his next deal.

But letting Darnold walk into free agency doesn’t read in any way like a smart move on behalf of the Vikings, which is why the chances he gets there untethered don’t seem high — if they exist at all.